ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Pretty good move E by Reggie. Figured it was coming at some point.
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Ratios could be good over the interior too…so even if something like half an inch of QPF verified and not larger amounts, could still put up 8” from that.
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I think the position of the low affects it somewhat. NAM and EC are SE and weaker…not as consolidated. I think a more consolidated low will really make a difference in QPF as the conveyors are more mature. You can see on that saturation coloring how the low level WCB and CCB are basically disjointed whereas on the juicier models, they are linked and much healthier looking.
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Rgem is still significantly warmer than them out east. It’s having trouble getting any accumulating snow inside of 495. Tossed.
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NAM not overly impressed with QPF. Euro-esque.
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Still very big differences between the two. 12km NAM was a compromise of sorts but 3k looked more like euro…which is funny because yesterday the 3k looked a bit better. Now it’s the 12km.
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Coastal NH will have almost zero issues. Maybe a little paste at the onset before the CF rapidly sinks SE. most of the heavier snow will be with temps in the 20s even down to north shore coastal MA…the battle zone for a consequential amount of paste prob starts closer to BOS on the coast and then moving south toward Scott.
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06z backed off some. Still worth watching but feels like a whiff wide right.
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I’m not seeing this complete cave. It’s def moving NW but it still looks somewhat ragged and nothing like these bigger hits ala GFS. Euro tracks this well SE of ACK while GFS is over the cape.
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Not gonna be paste there. Maybe right at the onset but quickly will go to powder.
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Latitude becomes a bit of an issue in SE MA with what’s going on aloft and potential dryslotting. But even with that said, most non-RGEM guidance at least gives you advisory snows. Close to warning on a few models like GFS but there’s def gonna be a cutoff between places that get 4-8” and only 1-3” at the end.
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Here’s 48. Don’t really need 54h as it’s gone by then
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The rgem is the only model right now that is bad for him. It’s dicier further south down toward PYM.
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Canadian is buying next weekend too
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It works beyond 24h. I don’t think it’s much faster than pivotal these days. It used to be the first one out along with the old black and white maps from the environmental Canada site…but pivotal updates really fast now.
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That precip shield and thermal field is quite different. Don’t just look at the red L.
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Not a big move but a tick east and colder for those who were on the line on the 12z and 18z runs.
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I didn’t think it was a huge move but it def went a tick east. I do expect further nudges east since I don’t expect it to win a 90% compromise with the euro. We’ll see what GFS does here in a minute.
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Yea I just looked it up. Still uses it since 2019. I haven’t found the straight FV3 to be that similar to the gfs though.
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I don’t think so. They used to run a parallel version of GFS with an FV3 core I think, but I don’t think they are related in their current forms…I could be wrong though. @OceanStWx would be more up to date than me.
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I dunno if it has to be advisory. I could see this verifying as a low end warning for many but I’m currently a bit skeptical on anything over 8” at the moment. But if you get good snow growth (which has been pegged for some in this event), it won’t take a lot of QPF to verify warning. Like 0.4” of QPF might get you there.
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Keep us updated on the Korean model…maybe you can find a version of the CRAS that still runs.
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One of the things I don’t really like about the euro suite is a relative consistency with a somewhat ragged precip shield. There’s still time to make it look better but it’s in the back of my mind.
