ORH_wxman

EPS has a lot more members that are snowy for 12/14-15 than 12z fwiw…but it’s pretty clear that the 12/12 evolution is going to affect that storm. A deeper 12/12 system seems to help suppress 12/14-15 more.

Trend overnight for 12/12 was pretty strong….cross-guidance sig on that. I’d like to see another one at 12z today though before taking it a bit more seriously. There’s def some potential there though. Due to the blocked flow, something forming and sliding to our south could be somewhat slow moving.

Yeah I mentioned that to Scott earlier on how the GEFS looks finally good out west and it’s not way out in total clown range anymore. It’s inside of 10 days now on the clear improvement. First time we’ve had decent agreement and also having it get closer inside of d10. I also am not sure why everyone seems to be Writing off the threats next week. Except Tip….I know they are fairly low probability but they aren’t total lottery odds. There’s a chance we get something out of either. I think the expectations got so built up when the models were showing insane look at the end of November.

It's a very good pattern, the color shades are just showing the change between 00z and 12z....they aren't height anomalies. The 00z EPS was kind of ridiculous so I'm not surprised it tamed down a bit in the long range. More importantly, the 12z GEFS has a significantly better PAC by D10 and it continues to the end of the run, so we're getting some agreement now which we didn't have previously.

Just catching up on post-Euro....seems like the PAC improvement is now inside of 10 days on all ensemble guidance...so even if we strike out in the next week or so, it looks like we'll have a good situation to work with beyond mid-month.

Ukie has the shortwave but it gets sheared out....it does produce some onshore flow and SN- for like 40 hours though, lol.

You ran that run from your basement tho

It’s not a high probability but we def can’t discount a meaningful system for 12/11-12/12.

Block evolution on the the two mdoels is so different. What a nightmare.

Just saw another frame. That would be quite a bit better than Dec ‘96 system #1. Esp for coast. I think you had about 3-5” of paste from that one? This run would easily give you warning snows.

What a little nuke. That would crush the interior. Coast even flips. Kind of reminds me of the first Dec ‘96 system.

GEM is actually going for the system on 12/11. A day earlier.

Amazing how different GFS and GGEM are at just day 4. GEM is def going to hit us on 12/12 again this run. GFS does have a system for 12/12 but it’s way south. Not really a good upper air shortwave with it like the GEM. But the differences are already huge on these runs by even day 3/4.

I wouldn't sleep on 12/12 yet either. Low probability but hard to trust guidance when there's a lot of stuff that has to happen first and there's a good chance guidance doesn't deal with all of the Dec 9-11 stuff downstream accurately until we are closer.

Regardless of whether the Hudson Bay block forms from retrograding Greenland or building through PAC troughing (it's prob some of both since heights there are already residually very high when the PAC assists), it's very formidable for winter storms here. It's probably one of the best spots we can have a block. It's why the OP Euro gets us in the 12/14-15 storm. But I know why that is a more dangerous evolution....if it forms in SE Ontario or Quebec instead, then it torches us....which is what many of the ensemble members try to do. 1/12/11 had a nice Hudson Bay block form ahead of the PAC troughing

And here I was getting excited to see the block regenerating near Hudson Bay when I lopped the 00z ECMWF.

They look very good through early January.

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GEM/Euro/Ukie are also colder behind 12/10 than GFS is. Prob because their NAO block is not sitting on our face like the GFS.

We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen. In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14. BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions.

This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z.

Not a lot of them, but there are a few big snowers on EPS for 12/12....that follow-up wave behind 12/10 threat we were talking about earlier.

Tip might have some additional fodder for his 12/13-14 thread on this run.

Yeah....whats shifting the block from Baffin to Quebec City amongst friends?