ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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2/10 has some of the weakest warm records in SNE, so it's pretty easy to attain record highs. Headline is correct but doesn't mean 70+. Even torchy BDL only has a record high of 55F today (already beaten)
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RGEM is really close but doesn't quite get the goods into SE MA....but that is so close. Thermals prob cold enough for snow if it backed in another 25 miles.
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Yeah 900-925 is pretty cold while it's a bit torchy up near 850....my guess is underneath the best fronto/lift, it would prob go to parachutes, but outside of that we could see a lot of scalping with that colder BL underneath....this is all hypothetical of course, most likely we don't get any meaningful precip out of this.
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That's kind of a ridiculous fronto band....too bad it's prob wrong.
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Lol at 12z NAM. Congrats Scooter to Tblizz
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Both ensembles start pressing the PV a bit more near the end. If there’s going to be one last run at winter like the weeklies show, then it will start showing up the last few days of the month and into early March…if the ensembles start pushing it out another week or so as we get closer, the. I’m inclined to stick a fork in winter.
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At least all the guidance brought back the nice warm sector next week. Good change of pace from Seattle weather.
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It’s hard to communicate your idea in a winter with so little snow…esp to your south. Some people down in CT have like 1-2” on the entire season…lol. But yeah, it’s really not that weird if you picked up, say, 6-8” in the rest of February and then had a 16-22” March. It would be a good stretch but nothing super anomalous. I get the skepticism though in a ratter winter.
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I wonder if we can sneak an event in during the 2/19-2/23 period there’s a decent PV press and fast flow…type of pattern where guidance wouldn’t see threats very well. You also have the SE ridge trying to build back up…sometimes that helps and sometimes it hurts.
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18z GFS is teasing us with bringing back a cleaner warm sector. Hopefully we can have a nice dry day in the 60s later this week.
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Yes, it shows what the EPS shows through about Feb 25ish and then it goes gangbusters with the arctic blocking and sends low heights for us all the way through the equinox. No doubt, we'd prob have a really active/stormy March is they verified....but yeah, taken with a grain of salt for now.
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Check the weeklies.....lol I ain't buying cold/snow until it's close though.
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6 years ago today was a good one in 2017
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Yeah the only place I feel like has a decent shot at futility is BDR....anyone else really just needs an advisory event (or less in the case of BOS) to ruin any futility chances. Given that there's some evidence we go into a bit more of normal look for late Feb and perhaps favorable look beyond that, I don't have a reason to buy the futility futures right now.
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That was a frustrating event....so close to a monster hit....the system just couldn't quite get it's act together for the final bump north to get the real goods in here. I would've had a 50 inch month if it had.
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2009....summer was a disaster though.
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Ashland coop right near me had over 46" and change. What's weird is Ashburnham and other sites north of ORH had more too....wonder if they had a couple bad measurements....or they just happened to get unlucky.
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Man, GGEM is really close....gets really heavy banding into Cape and far S shore. It's cold enough at 925 and 850 for snow, so if that backed in a little further, then we'd be talking a legit event. I still think the odds are pretty low though. Seems like that kicker shortwave coming through the lakes will inhibit this from coming much further north.
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Ray's March 1956 incoming....
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Excellent contribution to the thread
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Dirty looking warm sector though....hopefully it's right as I'd take that over 49-54F and showers lots of clouds. But I'm guessing it ends up closer to the latter.
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Warm sector window has gotten pretty short on that....I was hoping to like 36-48 of torchy dry weather, but now it's kind of a FROPA with showers....it still might spike to 60+ if we can briefly get some sun, but it's a fundamentally different look than the Euro a few days ago. GGEM still has a nice prolonged 2 day warm spell....maybe we can trend back to that.
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Yeah I think this one is likely a close miss (as we've been surmising for days) but you can't ignore that the ensembles have maybe like 1 out of 3 members with advisory type snows into SNE. So while it's likely nothing, can't completely write it off.
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I mean, it wasn’t the canonical Alberta clipper but it was pretty similar. It came in a little south of the typical clipper but similar result because the block forced it south instead of swinging up into S Canada.
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Dec 11th this winter? Might be the biggest event of the season for a chunk of CT.
