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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas
  2. ORH_wxman
    Thursday could be a sneaky downslope dandy day prior to the cold trying to get in here ahead of the 3/4 system.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Here's the sounding for MBY on the 3k at 12 noon tomorrow....great look at how cold it is in the 900-950mb layer there.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Good look on the IVT too....really on the 3k it shows it even better...esp for spots than can stay at or just below freezing.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Top of MQE pasted while it's dripping off the trees below.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Pattern looks pretty damned cold out into mid March and beyond. Maybe a *little* relaxation after the 3/4 storm but it looks to reload pretty quickly.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s actually a pretty solid forecast for us I think. I’d go advisory snows here with an outside shot at low end warning.
  8. ORH_wxman
    06z euro did come back in a bit more juiced. Esp for CT where there was a pretty big bump in QPF. But everyone saw it come up a bit.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Glad the north trended stopped. Good sign there. Still gotta get this inside 4 days though for more confidence.
  10. ORH_wxman
    ORH hills are gonna do well with the IVT stuff. It’ll prob be just cold enough there with the elevation to accumulate during the day. Prob the kind of thing where there’s a pretty big difference between 700-800 feet and 200 feet.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Wow that is a pretty good run from HREF. I think it was a couple winters ago it did really well. During some of those February storms. Seems like most runs are coming in a bit more uniform tonight. Best is still CT to W MA but we’re getting a little more QPF thrown to us out east.
  12. ORH_wxman
    IVT is prob gonna be elevation dependent on accumulations.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah i certainly wouldn’t be forecasting NAM amounts here right now. It’s been the northern outlier since yesterday. It’s nice that it bumped north a little though instead of coming back toward consensus. RGEM is coming in now and not providing any support really. It did bump north but only marginally. It’s been consistently in the opposite spectrum as the furthest south model.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I don’t think it looks that pasty until during the day on Tuesday. Soundings are keeping sfc temps in the upper 20s across most of CT during the best snows Monday night/predawn Tues. The south coast may be the exception where sfc temps creep closer to freezing.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Nice look along the pike with that northern band.
  16. ORH_wxman
    HRRR was pretty tasty…but clown range HRRR isn’t very reliable. Take with grain of salt. But I’d rather see it amped than not.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Honestly on the fence here. I’d feel a lot better if I was a little further west. I’d prob put the O/U at 3” here. But it wouldn’t take much to get warning amounts if we can hold that shortwave together just a smidge longer.
  18. ORH_wxman
    The block in this one is pretty set. It’s really all about the shortwave intensity now. The models that eject it out a bit stronger which allows it to hold together longer will produce more robust snow totals while the weaker ones will not.
  19. ORH_wxman
    RGEM didn’t really improve from 18z. Maybe a bit over SE areas. But overall still fairly paltry.
  20. ORH_wxman
    It was able to curl up some of that WCB too which took the precip hole away from SE MA and actually gave them part of the bigger snows…RI gets hammered that run too. That’s the key though…keep that shortwave just strong enough to curl in that moisture thump and have it run into that stout high…good fronto.
  21. ORH_wxman
    The difference was we got a little more vigorous shortwave ejection. The block didn’t look like it got any weaker this run.
  22. ORH_wxman
    That was a decent bump on 00z NAM. CT really gets pounded but even pike region is prob low end warning snow there.
  23. ORH_wxman
  24. ORH_wxman
    Wow those are gorgeous pics subdude. They look great with the fresh snow too.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Really nice outline John…thanks for the start on this thread. Im going to ask people to keep this thread cleaner than the last one. Keep the discussion on topic. There’s going to be highs and lows on the model guidance, but stick to the meteorology. We have a banter thread too if peeps need to sound off (and a panic thread too).
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