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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Ukie looks like it held serve from 00z...continues not to be quite as juicy as other models but it likes the idea of a low end warning event for most of SNE/CNE.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah a lot of it will be beaten back on Wed/Thu...prob not all of it though. Obviously depends how much we get too...if we get 7", it's not all going away. But if we limp to 3 inches, then most of that might go. I still have about 2" of glacier here too, so there's going to be that underneath as well, so I doubt there's a lot of grass showing after Thursday outside of the sun-torched south/west slopes.
  3. ORH_wxman
    This one kind of has 2/5/14 vibes....primary slamming into CLE but then hitting a wall of confluence in Quebec. But at this stage, 75 miles in either direction could produce large sensible wx differences than that 2014 event.
  4. ORH_wxman
    GGEM was really suppressed at 00z, so it's not a surprise it came north to be more in line with other guidance.
  5. ORH_wxman
    GGEM is a pretty huge hit for SNE...does tickle the sleet line about up to the pike but there's a pretty robust front ender prior to that down south of there.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Trailing shortwave regenerates snow.
  7. ORH_wxman
    There's still a large spread on how the NAO is handling the Quebec confluence to the north. I want to see that spread reduce some before getting confident in solutions.
  8. ORH_wxman
    GFS kitchen sink storm for SNE....front ender snow to sleet to ZR (interior...rain coast). Almost looks like a juicer version of 2/22-23
  9. ORH_wxman
    GFS def bumped up a bit in eastern areas
  10. ORH_wxman
    Thursday could be a sneaky downslope dandy day prior to the cold trying to get in here ahead of the 3/4 system.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Here's the sounding for MBY on the 3k at 12 noon tomorrow....great look at how cold it is in the 900-950mb layer there.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Good look on the IVT too....really on the 3k it shows it even better...esp for spots than can stay at or just below freezing.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Top of MQE pasted while it's dripping off the trees below.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Pattern looks pretty damned cold out into mid March and beyond. Maybe a *little* relaxation after the 3/4 storm but it looks to reload pretty quickly.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s actually a pretty solid forecast for us I think. I’d go advisory snows here with an outside shot at low end warning.
  16. ORH_wxman
    06z euro did come back in a bit more juiced. Esp for CT where there was a pretty big bump in QPF. But everyone saw it come up a bit.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Glad the north trended stopped. Good sign there. Still gotta get this inside 4 days though for more confidence.
  18. ORH_wxman
    ORH hills are gonna do well with the IVT stuff. It’ll prob be just cold enough there with the elevation to accumulate during the day. Prob the kind of thing where there’s a pretty big difference between 700-800 feet and 200 feet.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Wow that is a pretty good run from HREF. I think it was a couple winters ago it did really well. During some of those February storms. Seems like most runs are coming in a bit more uniform tonight. Best is still CT to W MA but we’re getting a little more QPF thrown to us out east.
  20. ORH_wxman
    IVT is prob gonna be elevation dependent on accumulations.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah i certainly wouldn’t be forecasting NAM amounts here right now. It’s been the northern outlier since yesterday. It’s nice that it bumped north a little though instead of coming back toward consensus. RGEM is coming in now and not providing any support really. It did bump north but only marginally. It’s been consistently in the opposite spectrum as the furthest south model.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I don’t think it looks that pasty until during the day on Tuesday. Soundings are keeping sfc temps in the upper 20s across most of CT during the best snows Monday night/predawn Tues. The south coast may be the exception where sfc temps creep closer to freezing.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Nice look along the pike with that northern band.
  24. ORH_wxman
    HRRR was pretty tasty…but clown range HRRR isn’t very reliable. Take with grain of salt. But I’d rather see it amped than not.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Honestly on the fence here. I’d feel a lot better if I was a little further west. I’d prob put the O/U at 3” here. But it wouldn’t take much to get warning amounts if we can hold that shortwave together just a smidge longer.
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