ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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CC causes the emergence from the warm season cocoon to happen later than we're used to.
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Yeah this isn't the thread for 1/10....lets keep this one about 1/7 so peeps don't get confused.
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Seems like that trailing s/w being stronger in the 1/7 event plus it's trying to phase a bit with that northern piece traversing the N stream is locking in the confluence better for 1/10 on some of these runs.
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GGEM might be even colder than GFS....big event for all of New England.
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You might struggle to hit freezing on that look until right around FROPA when you mix.
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Big front-ender on GFS for 1/10. Warning crtieria for a lot of SNE before the flip.
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12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.
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There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.
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Leading wave does look stronger through 54h on the 12z run vs 06z....the trailing wave is also closer....might try and get a quasi-capture on this run like the Euro? We'll see.
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For American models (GFS and NAM), I still think PSU is one of the best combos of decent graphics and fast updates. Faster than TT usually on those two models. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html
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That was from weathermodels.com which is paid....pretty cheap though. I've been considering switching, but I'm giving this site one more winter.
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ICON QPF for those waiting on TT
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ICON looked like 00z Ukie....really big hit for BOS-HFD line southward. Maybe move the heavy precip line a bit north of that on the ICON.
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It isn't because the storm usually consolidates onto one shortwave/vortmax. But this is the type of situation where it could not do that if that front runner gets sheared quick enough....my personal gut feeling is that the front runner survives enough for a decent event from that piece of energy with maybe a little lingering -SN from the trailer. But prob not one of these 30-36 hour deals.
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That's kind of what the 06z GFS did....maybe weakened the first s/w slightly too miuch for your description, but it basically turned the event into a 30-36 hour light snow with maybe some moderate bursts for eastern areas Sunday PM as it tries to re-invigorate from the trailer shortwave before it exits.
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Reggie has a decent look at 84h with the leading s/w. Looks like it holds enough mechanics together.
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NAM would actually have the storm on the kicker wave....the front runner gets ground up so much that it isn't able to sweep away the baroclinic zone with it.
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That was the storm where it was below 0F and snowing
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Ukie was pretty close to Euro....a little south but big QPF up to about BOS-HFD
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06z EPS maybe looks like it has a better cluster NW than 00z? Not sure what mean QPF looks like yet, but the SLP looks slightly better. No huge changes though.
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I crashed early last night but it seems like we’re sort of stabilized on the trends. Still a good amount of variance though.
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Lot of confluence on GFS for 1/10. If only the main shortwave wasn’t so wrapped up to the west, it would be a huge front ender. As it is, there’s a few inches, but the magnitude of deepening to the west is inhibiting some of the best dynamics to run out ahead as often does in early-stage cyclogensis.
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Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have.
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Let’s be honest, nobody is going to be super confident in plowable snowfall until we’re inside of 3 days with good model agreement. A couple cycles ago, the S and SE peeps were all worried about this being a hugger…now the worry is the opposite. Nobody really knows whether this is the “one” to be worried about or if it will bump back NW on the next cycle. But that’s life 5 days out on a storm threat.
