ORH_wxman

Actually ripping very good now in this. Hopefully pick up a quick inch or so here. Excellent snow growth

Looks like 4-5” out there but coming down good again in this band.

Nuking dendrites right now. Wasn’t expecting the snow growth to be this good after the first hour or two. This band is regenerating a bit back to the west

And now 00z back to being much warmer. This one has been tough on guidance.

These are the goods right now. 1-2” per hour stuff

Top 5 SNE snowstorm all time.

It’s going to try and fill in as it moves ESE but I’m not sure how efficient it will be. If it can generate some convective bands then it could help grab an extra inch or two. But if it’s more showery then it will be tougher.

Ripping right now. Looks like an inch down eyeballing. Like how the enhanced echoes are lining up for here back to NW CT.

Heavy snow here now. Even the street light up the hill 200 yards is getting pretty dim.

Excellent snow growth here now. Prob that initial fronto push.

Light snow has started in Holliston

If it was supposed to happen earlier and prevent accumulations, then it was wrong.

It’s a little sucker hole but gonna start soon in CEF

Nobody does

Looks like steady stuff just reaching DXR and far SW CT

With this pattern, it’s prob not far off from 50/50.

Hopefully you guys grab a couple down there. Maybe I can scrape a C-1”. Still not enthused but that was a decent jump by 18z euro.

Lol we’ve said this like half a dozen times since this morning and still falling for it.

Just as long as it’s not a larger partial phase you’d prob get a net gainer…but let’s keep that phasing idea off the table and get a true big dog. Still a long ways to go obviously on that threat.

18z euro looked a little thumpier down into CT this run…still not a big system but maybe advisory snows before a flip to IP/ZR and a quick dryslot. Keep an eye on that main vort…if that can trend just a shade east, prob would increase snowfall non-linearly.

Yeah this would obviously not be as extreme as that one…that was a much deeper phase. But same concept for sure. But given the southeast ridge, even a small partial phase too early could screw us. Hopefully the block does its job.

It’s basically a cutter but with CAD/redevelopment so we never warm sector.

You don’t want the PV partially phasing with the main shortwave until very late in the game. Those more amped runs are trying to rotate the PV or PV lobes just far enough west to do a little partial phase and send this thing up to BUF…and the colder/snowier solutions delay that process or just flat out keep it from occurring.

Most of the inflow is out of the south until late. You should still do well though…pretty big thump incoming for most Euro had south shore in one of the higher QPF zones.

The old ETA had some epic coups back in the day but it also had some horrific busts too. I remember the night before the Feb 2006 storm a random 06z ETA/NAM run was basically a complete whiff. It was like a 6 hour forecast too. I think it scraped us with 1-3” and maybe hit the Cape and far SE areas. It had a few other clown solutions that were just as bad along the way. But I think we forget them sometimes. The only modeling tool that I legit think was better back then for snowstorms was prob the SREFs.