ORH_wxman

First update of the season comparing other years....I'll try to update this fairly frequently until the end of the month when we can make a skilled prediction on the minimum. On 6/15, daily NSIDC area was at 8.82 million sq km, here's where other years were compared at the same time: 2022: -100k 2021: -190k 2020: -320k 2019: -560k 2018: +40k 2017: +10k 2016: -380k 2015: -150k 2014: -20k 2013: +90k 2012: -830k 2011: -300k 2010: -310k 2009: +560k 2008: +110k 2007: -240k You can see we're off to a slow start in the post-2007 context as most years were lower by this point. Model guidance doesn't really show anything extreme in the next week or so. There's a weak high over a chunk of the pacific side of the basin right now that is causing some sfc melt, but cooler conditions are forecasted to sweep in over the next few days. There's signs of a weak dipole trying to develop later next week, but you'd like to see it more pronounced to really get the momentum going after a slow start.

Yeah usually they will just say grapefruit sized for that 4.5” diameter range. Lol

I'd be more interested in OHC and T-depth numbers rather than SSTs out there since a little upwelling can sometimes wipe out big + anomalies within days.

Take 2009-10 with slightly less exotic blocking and you probably have a blockbuster winter here (and quite a bit colder too)

Gonna be warmer up in interior Labrador than it is here next week.

You really need a 70N graph as 80N is a pretty small area around the pole. 2015 was pretty warm outside of that region....this year has been less so. We've seen decent area losses the past week but a huge percentage of them have come from Hudson Bay and other peripheral seas. The main arctic basin is off to a slow start this melt season, so I'm not seeing much potential for a top 3 melt season unless it turns around quickly. I'll start tracking the numbers more closely in a couple days....but even right now, we're trailing 2012 by around 700k on area loss.

Wouldn't take much updraft for hail today with the freezing level sitting at 775mb.

This dogshit is starting to remind me of 2009 when I keep seeing ULLs and rain events out in the extended.

Why does a blue ocean event have to be permanent? If GHGs eventually come down, the ice would respond just like it did after previous blue ocean events during the peak of the Holocene. Spraying a bunch of sulfates into the arctic atmosphere sounds like a really bad idea.

Funny you posted this earlier this morning and then the 12z guidance today comes out and is noticeably lower with heights over the arctic in the D7-10 timeframe. So maybe there is something to the MJO idea you were touting. This melt season frankly looks kind of boring so far....but again, things could change quickly if the 2nd half of June has prime conditions for ice loss. The slow start still makes record territory unlikely even should the pattern flip later in June. Those big melt years like 2007/2012/2016/2020 all had significantly above average melt ponding starting up by now.

Almost time to start tracking NSIDC area....it's still a bit early right now, but by 6/15, it will really be worth tracking much closer. I don't see any drastic conditions developing at the moment. Daily area is tracking a bit above the 2010s average, and the forecast looks fairly benign up there for the next week. We'll want to see that change to a more defined dipole setup (high pressure on the North American side with low pressure on the Asian side) if we're going to even entertain the possibility of a new record this year. Things can change though with relatively little warning as bluewave stated above on how unreliable the arctic forecasts are once past 4-6 days. So we'll monitor the guidance and see if anything interesting happens. Some of the medium range guidance beyond D8 is trying to retrograde a block into Greenland and possibly further northwest which would be a stronger melt setup if that block can make it back into the arctic basin....but we've seen a few false alarms already early in this melt season.

Light NE wind....downsloping?

Gotta love 546 thicknesses in June this weekend.... Nice summer of yore day today though in the meantime....DPs keeping it tolerable though.

Indigo bunting. They are more common further southwest pf New England even though we do get them here...esp through lower midwest/OH valley/TN valley/lower MS valley. Given it's not super common in New England (esp NNE), it's definitely a good sighting at the feeder.

An item/entity is worth whatever someone else is willing to pay for it.

Blue Jays and Robins frequently toss Cowbird eggs out of their nests too. Cowbirds seems to love Warbler nests....though the Yellow Warbler in specific sometimes just build another layer of nest over the Cowbird eggs....but the other warblers rarely do this. Agreed on not touching Cowbird eggs. I've heard of so many stories of birds abandoning their nest when someone tried to "Help" out and remove the Cowbird eggs. I never read of a great explanation, but one of the ones that make the most sense is that apparently the birds will monitor the mass of their eggs and if they change substantially, they just abandon the nest and start a new one. Hopefully the Phoebe doesn't do this.

Got down to 32F here but no frost...

This wasn't one of those really weak ULLS with like 2 closed geopotential height lines that you sometimes can have fall apart a bit as you get closer or not have as much instability. This was pretty deep, cold, and advertised pretty well in advance. Maybe we can flip the pattern toward mid-month.

We're all used to spring here so yeah....56F and cloudy isn't "that bad"....we've experienced that type of day only about 1,000 times since we were kids. It doesn't make it any more appealing though from an absolute sensible wx perspective. Things can always be worse this time of year, so we can say it's a "win" in that sense. But nobody will ever convince me to genuinely enjoy 55F and overcast unless I morph into a marathon runner. I think I tolerate these types of days a bit more when everything isn't already soggy. A dry landscape and 55F overcast feels different than everything being like a sponge.

2021....I think the real bad day was Saturday 7/3 but 7/4 was only marginally better and had that "late day high" where it feels semi-useless because most of the morning/midday hours were still rotting in the 50s to near 60.

Yeah if I have the means when my kids are out of the house years from now, I'd love to have a place to go to between about April 1st and Memorial Day....not much redeeming here during that time. I do enjoy the brief few days each spring when you have just leafed out (not 100% but maybe 75%) and everything has that awesome almost electric green color....before it finally goes to the deeper green that stays around until August when it starts its demise (first the tired leathery look and then finally some hints of color in the swamp maples).

Yeah this weather sucks....it beats 38-41F and misery mist so I'm glad it's not the worst case scenario, but dodging showers at 54F in late April sucks balls too. Friday looks like best chance for 60s east of the CT river.

Lets see if we can muster up an '87 repeat in this shit pattern. Might as well given the alternative.

Mar ‘98 was pretty close here but maybe back toward BDL this year might have is beat slightly. The peak temps of Mar ‘12 I don’t think we’re quite as anomalous here but the duration was obscene. Mar ‘12 actually got warmer in some CNE/NNE spots than here did. (I think places like IZG were cranking mid/upper 80s?)

This might be more anomalous than late Mar 1998…or at least on par. prob doesn’t quite beat Dec ‘84 though.