ORH_wxman

06z EPS looks pretty decent. Guess we'll see what 12z brings. Still not all that compelling yet until we get another 24-36 hours closer.

Yeah I was out on winter hill a couple days ago and there was still full coverage there but literally a mile away to the southeast had almost nothing except piles. There’s prob still full coverage just a few miles further into Holden today.

Yes, there were quite a few EPS members that were pretty big snows well south into SNE and a few even into the Mid-atlantic. Definitely worth keeping an eye on given the cross-model support and ensemble support....but I'll probably wait until Friday if it's still there before taking it seriously.

GFS type solution would not be....elevaiton still would play a big role, but it wouldn't be quite like last week's storm because it doesn't have that primary low appendage sticking in CT...so you'd see more widespread snowfall on that type of look. Elevations would still do better since the ratios would be better for them. But this is all theoretical since the storm is 6-7 days out.

A GFS-esque solution was much more threatening for SNE....had deep layer easterly flow and it was plenty cold enough just off the coast. Euro solution is close, but I'd perfer the ULL to track a bit further south....a BUF-MSV-BID H5 ULL track isn't exactly ideal for SNE unless the antecedent airmass is really strong, which is rare in a late season event like this.

Yeah that is LOL with that upper air look....I'd believe a burial for Monads to dendrite on that run....maybe into N ORH county and Berks, but not the rest of SNE....we'd prob get a couple inches of slop at the end in reality.....now shift that ULL a little further south (like even 75-100 miles) and we're talking a different ballgame.

Euro does try and go nuclear with CCB and dump some snow on SNE at the end of that storm, but I'd prob sell that type of look unless the ULL was a little further south. (which could still happen)

Its actually a rainstorm for SNE too mostly....maybe a little frozen in highest terrain. But it's close enough that it could end up snowier on a future solution.

Stop looking at rainstorms for NYC and make your fantasy baseball draft picks.

Nobody should ever not post snow pics....at least within their own subforum. If other people are triggered by it, they can log off.

N Maine looks primed for more crushage.

you prob average somewhere around 1 90F day there per year. I think ORH is around 2-3ish?

Hopefully we actually get something because we already know there’s going to be storms in this pattern

Might as well root for snow in this pattern....but as usual, this late you'll need a break or two outside of interior NNE or very elevated interior CNE/N SNE. But the pattern remains blocky right into early April, so we're not going to be getting much in the way of those early 70-75F intrusions.

Looked pretty warm for southern parts of Maine on the CP.

06z EPS is pretty coldfor 3/25-26....gets decent snow down into pike region. I personally think the 3/27-28 system looks a little better for trying to get snow, but can't rule out the front-runner. The front-runner will probably be pretty snowy for NNE.

Alpine meadows lodge at 6809 feet is at 535” and the 8k plot is at 662”. They are going to crush their seasonal records I think even before the month is over. I think the record at the 8k plot is 707”.

The thump from like 1-2pm or so until mid evening was pretty epic. 6-8 hours of crazy. We had about 20” and I’d say the vast majority fell in 6 hours. I think we got a few pellets right near the dryslot but otherwise they were a non-factor.

I'd expect Nov temps to be more highly correlated with snowfall in central Maine since November itself (and early December by extension which is going to be highly correlated with Nov temps) is a more meaningful snowfall period than further south.

Speak for yourself, I'm all-in on using geese next year to predict the weather a month out.

We should be careful in our analysis of "too much data" though.... I agree there's often data overload, but lets not sugarcoat the prior era of forecasting....it absolutely SUCKED compared to now. Even the best mets back then couldn't forecast 5 days out even close to the same accuracy we have now. The computer models that all of us mets rely on just were not good enough and no human can overcome that lack of computing power.

Yes, you want multiple signals compounded in the same direction which increase the correlation. Oct has a slight inverse correlation, while Nov has a slight positive correlation, but add them both together and it becomes stronger likelihood. I'll say though that the Oct correlation has weakened in recent years, but it's still there. The biggest conundrum with seasonal forecasting is trying to fit pattern projection onto sensible wx. Nobody who was ever given a composite of December's H5 pattern would predict an above average month on temps and virtually snowless for SNE. The small nuances in that longwave pattern are not predictable at more than a few days lead time so you'll never be able to accurately forecast that type of blocking while also adding the caveat "but it won't produce cold/snowy sensible wx for us".

November does have a small correlation to winter temps. But it's certainly not strong enough to use as a primary variable for forecasting winter temps.

It can be very good here. Overall though ENSO is a bit overrated in New England. We don’t want super Ninos or super Ninas l, but outside of that, we can do pretty well in any other ENSO state.