ORH_wxman

Model guidance used to have a much bigger warm bias in the boundary layer too on storm systems. They’ve improved quite a bit to where that bias is almost gone. There are still some CAD scenarios where you take the under but on a generic wetbulb situation, they are not really biased warm these days.

Another factor the complicates these types of questions of projecting future snowfall trends is regional temperature variability. Like if we did an analysis on the warming from, say, 1970-2000, we would’ve seen a bullseye of warming over the northern plains with a cooling trend in SE Canada…you do the same analysis from 1995ish until now, you get a cooling trend in the same northern plains spot while SE Canada has the highest warming (and within the US border the highest warming is the northeast in that time frame).

Yeah that is a brutal dip even in the 20 year average.

I think if you theoretically ran it out like 50-100 years you could maybe do 8 year chunks to try and compare….but at that point, you might as well just use rolling 30 year normals.

But you’re going to use the 2007-2015 period as baseline to try and pick out when an “inflection” happened (supposedly 2015 in your original hypothesis) due to warming and then using future 8 year chunks to measure against it….I originally objected due to how short such a period is. We could’ve done the same exercise in the 1960s/1970s and then determined 2 decades later that we reached an “inflection point” because we couldn’t match the snowiest 8 year period from then…and we would have been wrong…because 8 years is obscenely short to try and figure out climate trends. I don’t think you can use rolling 8 year chunks to figure it out. You need something way longer.

How do you know the 2007-2015 peak was due to warming and not other factors? That’s the whole problem with the exercise. When you use such short periods to try and figure out if warming caused some sort of a tend, you inherently introduce massive natural variability into the equation.

Yes ENSO is a weak correlation for New England snowfall....I did not specify what it was in my post....I was merely responding to which one has produced the best results for us and that answer is undeniably weak El Nino. I'd definitely not bank on ENSO alone. IF you filter it for Modoki El Nino though, then it becomes more prolific.

Yeah it was during the super nino of 1972-73 when Flagstaff got their unicorn 200"+ season. They had 77.4" in the month of March 1973 alone. This winter was fairly prolific in every month but January's 61.4" carried the most weight....3rd snowiest January on record for them.

New England has typically done the best in weak Nino, but moderate to low end strong has produce plenty of good to great seasons too ('57-'58, '63-'64, '65-'66, '68-'69, '86-'87, '02-'03)

You'll need a lot longer than 10 more years to figure out snowfall climo. BOS average of nearly 60 inches between 2007-2015 is a ridiculous baseline to measure against as it is. The 36.5" mean since 2015-16 is a lot closer to their longterm snowfall climo than the 59.5" mean from 2007-2015. BOS moving 20 year average...even that doesn't tell you much on the 20 year level.

Almost no chance of getting another La Nina with a subsurface that looks like this

The area of record-breaking snowfall is crazy out there...it's not just isolated areas....it's basically everyone in a 300,000-400,000 mile sq mile area that is seeing record or near-record snows.

Flagstaff actually has 159.9" so far this season. Already 5th highest on record....decent chance for them to get 3rd place as they only need 7.2" for that....if they can get 17.3" more, then they'll get second place. First place is a much tougher task needing 50.2" to break that.

Is that the old Salamander cutoff trail? Or is this a new trail that I haven’t seen before? (Haven’t skied WaWa in years)

Haven’t skied Shawnee peak yet. Or did they rename it to Pleasant Mt? We’re up there every summer though on Moose Pond. Love that area.

Looks really torched in the lowest levels. Same song as most of this season except even more pronounced this time. No good low level cold on ageo flow. That’s why the trailing wave was better…it actually had a little bit of cold to tap.

There’s a large housing shortage. That’s the biggest culprit on rents/shelter. We’ve become a pretty big NIMBY society…esp in more affluent areas. It’s not as bad here as it is in, say, California…but it’s important to not fall further into the red when it comes to housing unit supply. Super low mortgage rates have masked some of the price increases keeping monthly payments more affordable, but it’s hard to enter the market in the first place with those big down payments needed…and renters have really felt the pinch recently. With fewer new buyers entering the market than previously, you crowd the renting market more driving those prices up. Back in the day in the post-WWII middle 20th century , most households spent around 25% of their disposable income on food. 2021 ticked up from pre-Covid, but it was still only around 11%.

Your area was due for a localized jackpot relative to climo. It had been a while. Prob have to go back to a year like 2000-01. I guess you had a localized “jackpot” in 2019-20 too but everyone was BN that winter for snow. I was mentioning to that poster who moved to Clinton from ORH how many years recently that ORH had been getting a LOT more snow than places like FIT/Leominster/Clinton/Lancaster even though ORH probably barely averages more than them. This year was finally trying to even that out some and of course your area to Gardner/Princeton/Ashburnham cleaned up even more.

Todays system got a lot weaker as we got closer too. Some of those runs were giving 8-12” or even a little more in N NH and Maine.

Ensembles didn’t look very good either last night. Still some big hit members but a lot fewer than 12z or 18z. That lead wave is the main culprit.

Too detailed. Though SNE probably favored a little more on those looks. We’ll see what the real models say later. Ensembles are still the way to go right now.

Clown range NAM and RGEM are pretty intriguing at 00z. If globals can continue to trend as well, then I’ll starting getting more interested in this one.

That’s def a step by the GFS. Get that thing to curl up the east side of the longwave trough and we’ve got a legit storm.

Ha…that is literally probably the snowiest town in Massachusetts east of the Berkshires.

There's definitely some interest on the EPS