baltosquid

3km probably isn't gonna be as crazy as the 12km but still a marked improvement.

Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models.

Huge bump in QPF for the first wave so far, but also lots of mixing/sleet at DC latitudes and rain further south.

Yes, just saying if it ends up right, I would give it the win since it was consistently trending the right way all the way through at a much greater pace than the rest of the models. Fingers crossed it loses. I want to crown the UKMET! God Save the Queen!

Was thinking about this earlier. How often is it that a weak wave gets pressed so intensely and manages to produce? Models for a while wanted to say you could just move the whole event south no biggie, just changes who jackpots. But in reality a weak wave getting this rough treatment from the north isn't going to just move south. It's going to die.

I'd give it the win on the basis of it was the only model trending south and dry so determinedly before its big digital rug pull at 18z while the others either trended a bit north today, didn't lose nearly as much moisture, or held pretty steady.

If the euro is right about this, huge win for it. If it's wrong, yikes. Way off in its own world. Not quite RGEM 30 inches for Baltimore level for our Jan-Feb storm, but it's making a huge claim here.

LWX really seems to be bearish on the Euro's take. Seems like they're mostly blending the GFS, UKMET and CMC for this one, with a bias towards the GFS.

Precip wise, very similar maximum amounts across MD to the 12z run. But the wave 2 precip looks broader and helps to give some previously fringed areas in the north some more insurance from missing out on the best of wave 1.

Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting.

Snowfan's got you on the QPF, here's the kuchera and 10:1

Almost no one in the subforum below 0.4 QPF on the RGEM. Can only see a couple spots in the MD panhandle and one in WV.

RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 42 for @WxUSAF

FWIW, HRRR came north with the best QPF at 18z for wave 1. A tenth better for pretty much all of MD and more so for DC. Edit: Eastern shore does much worse though. Nevermind, was contaminated with older QPF. Eastern shore is mostly the same.

Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 12 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching.

NAM 3km has a healthier precip shield for wave 2.

I mean, one more run that loses qpf or goes south and I’m lucky to get by with 2 inches. And that won’t be on the ground all at once with the 2 part, drawn out nature of things. There’s always next storm, yeah, but there’s also always the next way to miss out on it. Maybe there’s also the next way to beat expectations, but hasn’t happened yet this year. Baltimore has found almost every way to miss forecasts. Frustrating.

Looks very similar to the op on qpf. Best outside the mountains is 0.5 to 0.6 qpf. Less narrow with the best precip but kinda expected from an ensemble.

CMC also looks weaker on the second wave. Maybe a bit south.

ICON is really weird. Way north on the first wave (mixes into Baltimore), way south on the second.

Rates are much worse north of DC, still favors the southern areas. But an improvement overall. edit: actually it’s a bit worse in my area and NE. There’s a NW-SE fringe. Went from 5 to more like 4 inches of snow per RGEM.

Would have liked to see a few more frames of the 3km, definitely a big north bump on wave 2, a little more so than the 12km.

NAM 12k is a ways north and stronger with the second wave compared to the last run. Still fringes Baltimore and northward but getting closer.

Definitely looking like a NAM’ing so far. QPF upped by a couple tenths in the first wave, also brought north a bit.

Precip looks healthier on the NAM through 39.