baltosquid

I mean it may well be that this is one of those particularly annoying setups where an AI model is just not gonna catch the details a deterministic one can. That’s the hope at least!

Euro AI more suppressed unfortunately

The Euro AI does change but it doesn’t tend to make big jumps in this range… it did however tick NW at 06z and had some h5 changes that track with the more amped look we have seen across 12z guidance, so hopefully that continues. Should know in 20 minutes or so!

Yeah UKMET is better. Pretty dry but I definitely like the trends at 12z so far

Yeah this seems like a detail that isn’t worth getting invested in too much yet. This was a way better progression for big snow chances, and other guidance isn’t totally cold to it so far at 12z. Biggest takeaway

Give me another nudge that way please

971mb moving off OBX and obliterates CAPE

Canadian looks encouraging at 96. edit: 102 looks more encouraging…

GFS definitely wants to start developing things more in the TN valley but not as aggressively as the RGEM. Seems like it won’t amp enough to deliver big time? But I would not mind shifting to this kind of look.

Man I do not envy forecasters dealing with a look like the GFS has at ~48 hours. Four vorts just whirling in and around the CONUS. Should give anyone discounting the threat (or hyping it) pause

The RGEM dives the trough in a bit more west, deeper and narrower. Would give it room to develop in a more classic way for snow here. Hope it isn’t a blip because that would be much less painful to track than a last minute coastal.

Was just about to say, the EPS has plenty of members that look better for a strong coastal lol. Good cluster.

At hr 90 in the plains. Check the trends on the vort, moving west out of the lakes area to its current modeled spot. Part of me wonders if we want that to go even further now? Instead of every piece getting close but no cigar, maybe let some of the pieces spread out to the east and allow that westernmost part to do things itself? Idk just stupid speculation

Would drop 8 in DC, 18 in Baltimore, over 2 feet for some at the M/D and up in PA. Kuchera. Similar 10:1. Most of VA gets skunked unfortunately.

Looks way better at 132. Beat down.

CMC transfers at 126, we start as rain, but it could get to heavy snow shortly…

CMC thru 114 is a bit more amped. If the transfer happens next frame or two I think we do well, beyond that and we probably are too late to cash in much.

I mean I don’t think it’s a good step either, think it’s just that it is a good run. Obviously it lost the boom of 06z unless you’re on the eastern edge but it works and we take what works. Maybe it keeps going this way and it is a dud but it hasn’t picked a final trend yet.

Seems to split the difference between 00z and 06z. Would take. or if you’re on the coast it looks better

AIGFS looks very similar to 06z. CCB goods/greats are a tad east but I’d categorize the small change in low placement as noise at this range, unless the deterministic and other guidance do the same thing. But again, very minor shift. edit: did not see the temps, that would suck edit 2: I still think a massive latitude difference like that between the primary and coastal is a little much. Just have to hope it ends up meaning the primary tracks further south rather than the coastal further north.

I suspect they suffer from the common modern ailment of “I did my own research and…”

Also, the latitude delta between the primary and coastal is pretty funny. One center in Pittsburgh, the other on OBX. I feel like one of those is gonna move towards the other.

Just need that transfer to be earlier. If the primary makes it to northern WV we are not going to see the CCB in all likelihood. Shift the evolution west/earlier and we’re good.

Also, we have had snow cover for weeks and it still isn’t totally melted. I’m sure the ground is still a good bit colder than it otherwise would have been through this thaw thanks to the snowmelt going straight into it. Roads may be a tougher ask but then again, snow and white rain before CCB snow is probably a nightmare for treatment.

HGEFS (AIGEFS plus GEFS) has a mean of ~0.7QPF for the event with temps looking good from 925mb and up. Definitely would struggle with temps in the middle of the event for the metros but still a chance it remains snow as depicted, just bad accumulations. But a snow, to white rain, to snow again from CCB for a near warning level event would be pretty nice for a Miller B here. And finishing on clean snow would hide the slushy layer. I think it would also get Baltimore to about climo?