baltosquid
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Everything posted by baltosquid
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Put it all on black? No, put it all on p18.
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Someone with panels wanna find the big dog in the GEFS for Jan 16-17? Quite an influence on the average I imagine edit: can see it in the mean mslp with members lol. Looks like it even tucks a bit. 1004 at OBX, 996 just off Ocean City, then 989 off central NJ
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I was not confident enough to state it but I was thinking something similar. The blocking is there, and we’ve been complaining about a pacific look that left us fighting for NS scraps for the last month. That look gives us a chance at some actual southern energy I would guess. Temps would be the main issue but on an ensemble run that’s too far out to worry about temps. The right shortwave progression with a look like this could deliver the cold no problem.
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CFSR 1981-2010 climatology vs ECMWF ERA-5 1991-2020
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12/31-1/1 Possible Snow Showers/Squalls to Start 2026
baltosquid replied to bncho's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looks like a coating on easy surfaces, nice little new year event. -
12z GEFS doesn't contain any hints of further improvement for Sunday, unfortunately - all members suppressed from what I can see. Even with the organization of the storm trending better, there's no way it can turn the corner as depicted. An additional problem is that we don't have much cold to give here, so very little room to shake the suppression and not just end up warm.
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Mid level changes leave room for continued improvement though I think, although the surface didn't change much this time. Might be a non linear sort of trend on the ground if we see earlier and stronger consolidation.
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AIGFS came a bit north for Sunday but still well south. Overall the American suite has been on the side of strongest suppression for this one.
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Trends are decent. Wish it was trending like this a day or two ago, though.
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Sun is peeking out here too lol. Lots of blue in the sky
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A few flakes in Canton. Looks like a thin stream of flurries is pointed at us.
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Yeah NYE has more chance of leaving a coating based on what CAMs show but that might not really be able to get going for most of us. Would probably be more for SE PA/NJ. And then NYD is much more likely to just be a non-accumulating flurry, though maybe for a brief moment it can look snowglobey.
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CAMs seem to be open to the idea of a double serving of light snow across both NYE and NYD. Northeast extremity of the subforum seems like it would be favored for NYE, while on NYD you'd get a brief line of snow moving from NW-SE. Both are probably too marginal to model with much accuracy until the final hours...
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Some pingers in Canton
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If there's anything I've learned from Baltimore specifically, it's that we rarely pull off the rate-driven p-type change. Maybe because of urban heat island or something, idk. But I can't remember a case of "rates will get us the snow we need" working out for us. If a last minute miracle was to appear for this, wouldn't feel comfortable here if it was solely depending on rates.
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No wonder the RRFS has it going south when it wants to juice up the suppression so much leading into things.
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FV3 still believes in some snow before a changeover, lol.
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RRFS covering itself in glory before it is even used in forecasts
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I think the problem is the storm itself is mainly just slower so the high isn’t as ideally placed by the time it arrives. You can see the progression of the storm slowing down run to run on the GEFS member MSLP graphic
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GEFS was worse, basically back to 06z for it. Only a tiny bit of snow in far NE MD.
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Actually unsure of the GEFS, high may be moving out of the way too early. Probably gonna be close to the same
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GEFS should be a bit better I think, stronger high
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End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing.
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EPS mean snow depth (I don’t have a sub to look at actual quantity on pivotal) moved SW some
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Euro AI was another nudge SW, nothing too dramatic though.
