Torch Tiger

Yeah decent velocity on that cell near Milan NY

watch up! SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

missed this earlier. 80% Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible by early afternoon. Issuance of one or more watches is likely. DISCUSSION...Filtered heating is ongoing late this morning from parts of NJ/eastern PA into parts of New England, to the east of a substantial cloud shield and embedded weak convection. Morning soundings depict generally poor midlevel lapse rates, but relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F) and continued heating will result in MLCAPE increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Scattered surface-based storm development is expected as soon as early afternoon, as a cold front begins to impinge upon this destabilizing environment. Deep-layer shear is already rather strong across the region, and will continue to increase in response to a notable mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Initial development may quickly evolve into a few supercells, though deep-layer flow/shear roughly parallel to the front may eventually result in a tendency toward storm clustering and possible QLCS development. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH with time could support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially where surface winds remain locally backed near a weak surface wave that will traverse the front this afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercells. Otherwise, scattered damaging wind will become increasingly possible with time, as storm coverage increases and low-level lapse rates steepen. One or more watches will likely be issued by early afternoon in order to cover these threats.

convection looks shallow and meh. hope that ramps up soon

womp womp

Great day to go for a drive even if the storms aren't particularly good.

Debbie's gonna debbie

Hrrr is terrible. Hope 3k is right

Looks and feels like a big day

9/7/23 was ok

Early September is a mini-peak for severe, often as good as it gets around here. 9/7/98 is a great example

Mine are bulletproof. Talk to me tomorrow when your roof is in Epsom

Hopefully a few tors to spice things up.

yeah.

Sniffed this out firstly on Monday! Some knew ...Northeast... A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern PA early in the day, translating northeastward along the front and into ME by late afternoon. Stronger heating and steep low-level lapse rates should develop from VA into eastern PA/NJ and into interior southern New England, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg as an areal average. As the warm air mass develops and accelerates north ahead of the cold front, both instability and shear parameter space will become favorable for severe storms, including supercell potential. A line of storms is expected by 17 to 18Z, from eastern PA toward the Hudson Valley, expanding N/S and pushing east through the afternoon. Given 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear and enhanced low-level shear with the midday surface theta-e surge, the initial storm mode may be cellular along the boundary, with a brief tornado or two possible along with some hail. Damaging winds are then most likely as outflows merge, and spread east across the remainder of the region through late afternoon.

Yeah just like that, poof. Nothing to track in the LR. This season blows

The coast is never really "favored" versus interior, but the best time of year is typically Aug/early Sept. for coastal areas lol

Cloudy and cool in Bedford NH. Misting a bit too

I'm hoping the line outpaces models, not really expecting it.

Yeah, maybe some distant lightning here, otherwise absolutely nothing.

BOX going big tomorrow. Wild day awt

Yeah still looks fairly legit; ALB is interested too.

Stein chimed in!