Torch Tiger

yeah.

Sniffed this out firstly on Monday! Some knew ...Northeast... A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern PA early in the day, translating northeastward along the front and into ME by late afternoon. Stronger heating and steep low-level lapse rates should develop from VA into eastern PA/NJ and into interior southern New England, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg as an areal average. As the warm air mass develops and accelerates north ahead of the cold front, both instability and shear parameter space will become favorable for severe storms, including supercell potential. A line of storms is expected by 17 to 18Z, from eastern PA toward the Hudson Valley, expanding N/S and pushing east through the afternoon. Given 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear and enhanced low-level shear with the midday surface theta-e surge, the initial storm mode may be cellular along the boundary, with a brief tornado or two possible along with some hail. Damaging winds are then most likely as outflows merge, and spread east across the remainder of the region through late afternoon.

Yeah just like that, poof. Nothing to track in the LR. This season blows

The coast is never really "favored" versus interior, but the best time of year is typically Aug/early Sept. for coastal areas lol

Cloudy and cool in Bedford NH. Misting a bit too

I'm hoping the line outpaces models, not really expecting it.

Yeah, maybe some distant lightning here, otherwise absolutely nothing.

BOX going big tomorrow. Wild day awt

Yeah still looks fairly legit; ALB is interested too.

Stein chimed in!

Near to slightly below summer.

that's the U/L look we want, that meridonal streak across the lakes bent like that. Not a perfect setup but good to see a few scenarios pop up for peak. Erin was the reverse. Wish we could get that setup

SC hit earlier, to NE hit (ACK-MVY). LFG!

call them?

Obv la-la land but much better

pretty good storm for ACK, and that's about it. The overall pattern isn't terrible and hopefully something develops, and is more trackable than the Erin crap

That's all we got. Steintember

Yeah I was looking at Euro AI, op looks like crap besides NW. Hopefully WNE/CNE/NNE gets something.

gfs/ggem more W/NW timing for Saturday, Euro op timing is really good for most though. I'm interested. Hodos look more straight than a few days ago, though...was hoping for a few sups with the better dynamics and wind field

60kt microburst with .06" rain. ha

Should be a wild day

Saturday brings the better chance of some severe storms as instability increases and lift arrives in the form of a cold front. Details will ride on exact timing and stregth of this front, how unstable we can get ahead of it, etc.

BIG winter incoming.