GEFS extended has actually done a pretty good job with the temps. I think the red flags for me are that looking at the teleconnections the PNA anomalies are increasing toward the end of February and the MJO is forecast to go into Warm Phase 4.
Latest GEFS extended seems to lose the cold anomalies after the 3rd week of February. JB says winter looking over in 3-4 weeks as MJO goes to Phase 4. Hopefully we get some snow by President’s Day weekend.