Weather Will

WB 6Z EPS, verbatim dry seasonably cool week ahead.

Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately. And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again. Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days.

WB 0Z EURO control has no cold air in sight. May have to start facing reality here…

WB GEFS continues to push back the timing and intensity of the advertised cold.

6Z GFS says winter is still on hold. I guess another two weeks of patience is needed. Looking back to Thanksgiving, there was a subset of meteorologists that thought the pattern to colder weather would have happened by now. I won’t say Lucy is holding the football for Charlie Brown yet, but if we get to NYE weekend and we are punting another 2 weeks, I will become skeptical of this pattern change.

MJO rotates through 7 much slower on the EURO. GFS has been faster. At least we may have things to keep half an eye on starting next week. I have barely seen a sprinkle in weeks!

WB 12Z GFS…. 6 more hours to BELIEVE!!!

WB 6Z GFS Christmas miracle is back…

WB 6Z GFS low still to track…

Early morning update from Sterling NWS… Beyond Sunday, forecast becomes far too uncertain to get too far into details. However, there does appear to be a chance for a coastal low pressure system nearby early next week with some cold air potentially lingering in portions of the area. This pattern would generally lend itself to wintry precip potential primarily being over the higher elevations, but will have to evaluate further as the threat comes closer into focus. For now, have some mention of rain/snow on Monday. Exact timing is also subject to change of course as guidance picks up on this potential system. For now this system just needs to be monitored for future updates.

WB 0Z EPS…45 please

WB OZ EURO, nice jog toward GFS, BELIEVE…. Long time since I have woken up for the EURO and not been depressed….

WB OZ Can big shift this run toward GFS solution…BELIEVE…if only for 6 hours,

WB OZ GFS….BELIEVE…if only for 6 hours,

WB 12Z GEFS

Models can’t figure out if it is going to snow 3 days out…I like the percentage maps in the long range simply because it gives someone like me who is not an expert a feel for whether we are going into a favorable period or not…

Do you have the 1 inch map?

0% chances over the next week or so…But 18Z GEFS has hits after that through Christmas.

If it goes above 20 percent, will post an updated map. EURO ensembles also in 10-20 percent range.

WB 12Z GEFS thru Christmas.

WB 6Z GEFS through Christmas…like the couple of big hits to our south at this range.

Christmas week miracle still possible….WB 6Z GFS…

You mean verifying like the Cowboys beating Washington this weekend?

WB 6Z GFS much different than overnight run….has our Christmas miracle storm….

Enjoyed reading the analysis above, but don’t see any cold air through Christmas on the latest ensemble runs to suppress any potential storms. Hopefully we will see some cold air in range over the next week or so on the ensembles, I will be turning the hose back on and watering on Saturday. Seems like the news right now is we are in a drought.