jaydreb
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Everything posted by jaydreb
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Signs of an impending fail: ”Convective feedback” ”Angle of the vorts” ”Predecessor rain event (PRE)” The RGEM is the best looking model
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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion
jaydreb replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Incoming on GFS. Looks like we’ll have another 100+ page thread next week.- 4,130 replies
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- prime climo
- cold canada
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Almost time for Euro.
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Let’s just agree not to look at the 3k.
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At least we get to enjoy frigid windchills.
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Pretty significant cave to the GFS. Euro had been showing 20+“ totals in NJ and Delmarva.
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Euro gives NNJ two feet while GFS gives it a few inches. Crazy difference.
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Are those darker purples moving northward towards us? Or moving east?
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NAM
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Do you mind explaining what exactly we are looking for here? Thx.
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3 tads = 1 jump? So we’re just a few tads away from a jump in QPF.
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10:1 still gives DC metro 5-6” which is nothing to scoff at.
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It’s actually a tick west with the heavies from the 0z run. 0z
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True. GFS has “trended west” the last few runs, but it’s still way east of where it was yesterday at this time. This was yesterday’s 12z run.
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A lot of us were probably ready to move on last night, but then the 0z Euro sucked us back in for another round of this insanity.
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I’m not seeing much change vs 6z. Seems like it just reduced the spread somewhat but kept the general mean the same. Maybe a subtle shift west but not much IMO.
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GEFS precip panels look pretty similar to 6z. Looks a little better at h5. Not a step back but not a huge shift IMO.
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I tuned in to the Euro to see the final nail in the coffin, but now I’m invested for another day.
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Even Short Pump gets almost 6”.
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Euro is either playing catch-up or leading the charge.
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If we somehow get 6” out of this storm that would be a win, no matter what NYC gets.
