jaydreb
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Everything posted by jaydreb
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That seems to be the consensus (minus the Euro).
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Looking at the individual GEFS members, I count about 8 that give DC a nice hit, and a handful of others that just barely miss. At 18z there were pretty much no flush hits.
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CMC unchanged from prior run.
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Here was GFS at 18z.
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At first I thought it was a step back from 12z, but then I realized that’s the freakin’ mean!
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GEFS and EPS are worlds apart at 114 hours.
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I don’t think so. GFS nailed this last system. GEFS was too east.
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Canadian is kind of in between. Has a storm but it slides off to our south. GFS is the most suppressed of the three.
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EPS at 120 should be money, right?
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EPS thru 96 looks a lot like the op.
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GFS is the new Dr. No? And Euro is the new DGEX?
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FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend.
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The 0z GEFS improved a bit for this time period. There’s a signal for a coastal.
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Basically if we want a storm, we want to see an amplified ridge over Alaska and deeper trough in the Central US (he uses hour +144). He thinks the overall pattern might support a better storm than the GEFS mean is indicating.
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GEFS is cold. A brief warm up this week, and then after Thursday DCA barely goes above freezing for at least a week.
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Yeah, no complaints if it goes down like that.
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NH obliterated on this run.
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GFS gonna get it done?
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Dumping snow.
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Bad.
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Where?
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12z GEFS took the proverbial “step back” for next weekend’s possible storm. Supports OTS/southern slider solution.
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True but this is what it looked like the run before. Anyway, this is all moot since we’ll get a new run in an hour.
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From looking at the latest GEFS and EPS, I think the bigger risk at this point is that the trough doesn’t dig enough and this slides off to the south and we just get a glancing hit (or none at all).
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This looks fun.
