jaydreb
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Everything posted by jaydreb
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I guess because all the ops have been unrelentingly consistent with the track.
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FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm?
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I know it’s a broken record but GEFS coming in east of op.
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Meh. I like this map better.
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I’ll take thump to dry slot and run with it.
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He did. But I think he also said that at that range the GEFS would be more accurate than an op. Not sure whether that is still the case at this range.
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Weird to see increasing divergence on the GFS ensembles, but the op has been pretty rock solid for what seems like forever now.
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Total snowfall. It doesn’t tell you what will actually be on the ground when all is said and done. There is also a “Snow Depth” map but I usually find it to be overly pessimistic.
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Agreed but there seems to be increased spread?
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If anything, 18z EPS is a bit west of 12z.
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12z
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Looks unchanged from 12z but let me pull some maps.
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Pretty weenieish GEFS run.
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Accuracy will be higher at shorter time leads, so the fact that GFS at 72-84 seems to be an improvement over where it was at 12z is encouraging. What happens when the storm gets to 100+ hours is still within the envelope of uncertainty.
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I’m not seeing it on WB.
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Warmest EPS panel.
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Perhaps not surprisingly the EPS jogged west a bit from 6z.
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Still early, but gotta say I’m impressed how everything has been trending towards the GFS once again. It was the first to sniff out this inland track and ensembles and European seem be playing catch up.
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Pretty decent jump in snowfall map for DC on GEFS FWIW. 6z
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Warmest panel on GEFS.
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GEFS rolling in. 6z
