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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    18z gfs with a bullseye on Bermuda. If you look closely you can see the island inside the eye.
  2. cptcatz
    Dude, Bermuda is a tiny island alone in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. No one has any idea right now if it will hit it or pass by safely. Might be best to take a breather and just watch what happens.
  3. cptcatz
    12z GFS nails Bermuda, icon brushes it as a 940 storm. I think impacts to Bermuda could be the story with this one.
  4. cptcatz
    Overnight everything moving east, seems to be a clear OTS path. Could have a major hurricane getting close to Bermuda though.
  5. cptcatz
    Because every model is showing it being a miss. You're seeing what we're seeing, right? Wish casting won't make it turn the other way.
  6. cptcatz
    What's your point? GFS didn't show 98L developing until three days ago (Aug 7, 12z) and it looks like that will likely be a mjor hurricane. GFS long range doesn't know how to forecast cyclogensis and means nothing.
  7. cptcatz
    Icon showing two MDR systems a week from now. Let's see if GFS and CMC follow suit.
  8. cptcatz
    Classic ldub post of canceling the season in early August, never realizing that climatology ramps up in late August.
  9. cptcatz
    AF recon just made a proper center pass. 986 extrap pressure. There you go.
  10. cptcatz
    Yeah, radar with the eye now makes it easy to see it's direction. Definitely northeast. This path looks like it would take it between Ocala and Gainesville.
  11. cptcatz
    Recon taking off in a tropical storm...
  12. cptcatz
    Just got woken up to a tornado warning here in Boca Raton. Nasty looking outer band squall line about to move through.
  13. cptcatz
    GEFS 9 days out
  14. cptcatz
    Hell yeah, a NOAA plane just took off from Lakeland... that should be in the storm in no time. The AF plane from Biloxi should be there a little bit after. Hopefully they are fully fueled and can stay in for a while. Will be interesting to see how it strengthens from pass to pass.
  15. cptcatz
    Agreed. This just has the look of a storm about to take off. Lots of hot towers going up right now.
  16. cptcatz
    Jeanne had some gnarly turns
  17. cptcatz
    I'm not sure why this is a weenie take. The storm has a clear low level center with convection popping overhead, and will be traversing some of the hottest water in the world right now for the next 400 miles, along with what appears to be good atmospheric conditions. This along with GFS showing a landfall pressure of 983, I think cat 2 is clearly on the table right now.
  18. cptcatz
    Convection popping right over the low level center right now. I think it's off to the races. Wouldn't be surprised to see this pushing cat 2 at the Florida big bend landfall.
  19. cptcatz
    Not only the current wave in the central Atlantic, but both Euro and GFS are also picking up on the wave behind that too, also heading into the Caribbean. That's a good number of long range ensemble members showing development with very few showing an out to sea curve. Ominous look at only mid-August...
  20. cptcatz
    But Cuba is so narrow there a quick moving storm should only spend a couple hours traversing it. Look at Ian... it went over the western part of Cuba and barely made a blip.
  21. cptcatz
    So who had the biggest blowup of convection being south of Grand Cayman on their bingo card today?
  22. cptcatz
    Weren't you supposed to take a breather today?
  23. cptcatz
    In other news, GFS now has the wave currently in the central Atlantic hitting Galveston/Houston as a potential major hurricane. I feel like this hyperactive season is about to ramp up...
  24. cptcatz
    It almost looks like a low level circulation is forming halfway between Cuba and Jamaica. That would be a pretty big shift south and likely west.
  25. cptcatz
    Convection is blowing up to the southwest of Hispaniola but it still looks like there's at least a mid level spin to the north circled here. I think this is more of a nowcasting event until a real center forms because until then the models seem to have no idea what's going on.
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