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fluoronium

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Everything posted by fluoronium

  1. I felt like I found a needle in the haystack when I intercepted this tornado yesterday.
  2. It's pretty surprising how a couple weeks ago this month was looking to be cold, and now we're in full blown torch mode. February sure has been one of extremes in recent years. Either it's our snowiest month, or we cook. The system on Thursday has my attention. If this trends well it may be my first chase of the year.
  3. It has barely made it above 0F here the past couple days and there isn't a flake of snow on the ground. It's jarring how awful it feels outside compared to how it looks. Worst climo I woke up to a cold house this morning to find that my front door starting splitting in two! There is a huge crack on top where cold air is rushing in. This nonsense would be more tolerable if it looked like a winter wonderland outside.
  4. With snow on the ground and highs below freezing through the foreseeable future, this is the first time that December has opened up feeling like winter here in a long time.
  5. I worry about mixing too. Winds will have a southerly component here for the whole event and the low tracks to our NW. Even in January, that gives a rainer almost every time. We should at least get a good hit near the start though.
  6. I've never used the RRFS for snow before but it's interesting to see it hinting at thundersnow. I have noticed that the lightning algorithm on the HRRR has been completely worthless for predicting thundersnow (or at least the algorithm CoD uses)
  7. The 0z HRRR is an all time weenie run for my area. It has a supercell in a tornadic environment tracking over my house and then has accumulating snow falling 9 hours later. The dream!
  8. I'm definitely interested in the cold core potential Wednesday. Dew points look marginal but mid level temps are frigid leading to steep low level lapse rates. It seems like a good opportunity for low topped supercells at least and maybe even a tornado threat. It's local for me so there's a good chance I'll be out chasing if this doesn't down trend.
  9. I think I'll head down to just east of STL and let the storms chase me up i70. It should be a fun time. The next couple days have a good shot at setting records for number of severe reports.
  10. It's too bad a low of this strength has such meager moisture to work with. It'll probably still manage to spam QLCS tornadoes though. I'll be chasing regardless because I am so storm deprived.
  11. The WAA hit was more impressive than I expected it to be here. It's not often I get solid snow rates with ripping SE winds. It's too bad it didn't last very long though.
  12. These past 3 winters have been brutal for snow in the Peoria area. This winter sure takes the cake though. It's crazy how many times all models have agreed on a big dog a few days out or less, only to fall apart last second. The snow falling now is dense pixie dust. I'll be lucky to get over an inch where I live. The winter storm warning headlines add insult to injury lol
  13. I shouldn't have stayed up for the 06Z HRRR
  14. Not liking these drier trends, although I really shouldn't be surprised considering how this winter has gone here. If I get 3" out of this, it'll double what I've had all season.
  15. That's about how it has been in my area as well. This has been the worst winter I've ever witnessed.
  16. Looks like I'm going to make it halfway through met winter without having a snowfall >1" IMBY. Extended appears grim as well. Nothing worse than cold and dry.
  17. No accumulation here, and a report of 3.5" 10 miles to my SE. Ouch.
  18. It's hard to get anything done when there are new models to view lol. Today's runs have given some hope for us in the Peoria area, but man what a devastating cutoff on the north side.
  19. Nail biter for me in the peoria area, especially if the northern cuttoff ends up as sharp as the euro is showing. NAM being in south camp has me worried as well as it has sniffed out local snow busts pretty well in recent years.
  20. Not long after I pulled over to watch the Carbon tornado, I saw Greenfield form, and since I was in the path of that one, I had to bail south. I still managed to get some decent views of it as I took my escape route. Greenfield/Carbon was my third set of twin tornadoes in less than a month!
  21. Incredibly early start to spring here. Flowers are blooming weeks ahead of normal and the grass greened up within the first week of the month. I'm actually thankful for the current cool spell that has set in as it should slow things down a bit. Fruit crops will take big losses in a seasonable April freeze if growth gets much further ahead.
  22. Yeah it's the 84hr NAM, but GFS is onboard too. It's something to watch at least.
  23. PIA set the all time February and winter record high AGAIN yesterday, with the temp plummeting 61F over the 14 hours. Insanity. I chased yesterday and busted on the dryline, but was able to get a distant view of one of the tornadoes in the suburbs.
  24. Peoria, IL got to 77F today, smashing the all time high temperature for both February and met winter overall. Chase mode activated for tomorrow. As they say, you don't get that kind of warmth in winter without somebody paying for it!
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