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fluoronium

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Everything posted by fluoronium

  1. fluoronium
    I'm sitting pretty much in the bullseye for snow totals right now. It would be crazy to get two major storms back to back in just two weeks. I've seen places to my north get hammered repeatedly in recent Februrarys so it's nice to finally cash in on the snow train! The icing on the cake would be thundersnow, but it seems models have down trended the instability as the storm gets closer.
  2. fluoronium
    06Z NAM still had good overlap of instability in areas receiving snow and sleet. I'm really hoping we get some thundersnow out of this. I'm willing to drive to see it if it doesn't happen directly over my area.
  3. fluoronium
    What do you look for on a forecast sounding to identify thundersnow potential? I see the NAM has mid level lapse rates in excess of 7C/km and MUCAPE values over 100J/kg in areas receiving frozen precip. There is a lot of shear as well. Is there anything else to be looking for?
  4. fluoronium
    NAM is quite generous with upright instability in areas receiving frozen precip. All of the models have substantial frozen precip rates regardless of where the storm ends up. Maybe there's a good shot at thundersnow somewhere with this???
  5. fluoronium
    I managed to squeeze out about 10" here. Ratios were a lot lower than models predicted (as was suggested by people here in the days leading up to the storm) It wasn't the historic monster I had hoped, but it was still the biggest snow for me in 3 years so I can't complain.
  6. fluoronium
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0104.html
  7. fluoronium
    I'm near Goodfield, which is between Peoria and Bloomington.
  8. fluoronium
    Wow it's absolutely dumping snow here now. I don't know how I'm going to manage to sleep tonight.
  9. fluoronium
    Switching over now, very slippery layer of frozen slush on paved surfaces. Untreated roads are slick in spots as well. I don't think the warm day did much thawing of the ground. I guess those days going below zero with a bare ground have paid off. HRRR, NAM, and 3km NAM have me right in the bullseye for the biggest snow storm of my life.
  10. fluoronium
    ILX is mentioning a possible upgrade to blizzard warning for round two.
  11. fluoronium
    y break up the threads though
  12. fluoronium
    It's beautiful outside now. Most of my best storms in recent years have started with anomalously warm temps the day before the main event. HRRR is suggesting some heavy banding further west in central IL. Peoria area posters would like this scenario.
  13. fluoronium
    This is quite a change compared to such an abysmal start to winter in eastern IL. Has Champaign even received a 1" snowfall yet this season?
  14. fluoronium
    Decent sized area of "extreme" shown on the winter storm severity index forecast.
  15. fluoronium
    What are the chances of lightning in the the heaviest bands here? I've seen thundersnow from intense fgen bands before but I really don't know what to look for on the models to have an idea of this possibility. From my understanding, slantwise instability isn't apparent from simply looking at skew-T diagrams, and there's probably more to it than just a sharp horizontal temperature gradient. I'd love to hear input from some of the more knowledgeable members here.
  16. fluoronium
    It actually wasn't. That 36" in 24 hour snow total was in Astoria, IL in 1900. There must have been some tight banding with that system, since Peoria only received half of that. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records
  17. fluoronium
    Bonkers seeing ensemble mean totals like that. The operational 18z GFS is nearly an all time weenie run for my backyard. It would be incredible to have such a garbage season drop a monster storm of even half of what was is modeled there. I know it has happened to Chicago in recent years, but I've missed out on most of the fun in recent Februarys.
  18. fluoronium
    Crazy things happening in east central IL this morning, with multiple locations already reporting the biggest snow of the season. Effingham's accumulation is roughly infinity times larger than their entire season to date snowfall.
  19. fluoronium
    Wind chill advisory and a bare ground. Rough times here in central IL.
  20. fluoronium
    Not a good look going into an extended period of cold and dry.
  21. fluoronium
    I lost all of my rhododendrons and a lot of other plants rated for zone 4 in that cold snap, and I'm in zone 5b. Now I welcome these sudden cold snaps, since they are good for beating down invasive insect populations like Japanese beetles and emerald ash borer. Plus, what plants I had survive that snap should be able to tolerate future extreme cold here.
  22. fluoronium
    Oh here's a scary/cool video from this outbreak:
  23. fluoronium
    I have no idea what he was thinking, since models had been consistent on an outbreak setup for at least a week prior to that. I mean just the anomalous warmth in December alone is a pretty solid bet for at least some severe weather. In Broyles defense, he did call the 3/28/20 crapvection bust 4 days out, and he was also the mastermind behind this amazing resource for violent tornadoes: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/outbreaks-small.php#
  24. fluoronium
    I'm glad I saved a copy of this gem. We can't let the SPC cover up this one
  25. fluoronium
    I've been sitting right at the cutoff most of the day, getting a mix of sleet and snow accumulating to about 2". For such dense ratios, the snow is surprisingly dry and not sticking to the trees much. Funny how winter is finally starting here on January 1st, just like last year.
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