fluoronium

This clipper is Peoria's storm. I can feel it!

With snow on the ground and highs below freezing through the foreseeable future, this is the first time that December has opened up feeling like winter here in a long time.

I worry about mixing too. Winds will have a southerly component here for the whole event and the low tracks to our NW. Even in January, that gives a rainer almost every time. We should at least get a good hit near the start though.

I've never used the RRFS for snow before but it's interesting to see it hinting at thundersnow. I have noticed that the lightning algorithm on the HRRR has been completely worthless for predicting thundersnow (or at least the algorithm CoD uses)

The 0z HRRR is an all time weenie run for my area. It has a supercell in a tornadic environment tracking over my house and then has accumulating snow falling 9 hours later. The dream!

I'm definitely interested in the cold core potential Wednesday. Dew points look marginal but mid level temps are frigid leading to steep low level lapse rates. It seems like a good opportunity for low topped supercells at least and maybe even a tornado threat. It's local for me so there's a good chance I'll be out chasing if this doesn't down trend.

I think I'll head down to just east of STL and let the storms chase me up i70. It should be a fun time. The next couple days have a good shot at setting records for number of severe reports.

It's too bad a low of this strength has such meager moisture to work with. It'll probably still manage to spam QLCS tornadoes though. I'll be chasing regardless because I am so storm deprived.

The WAA hit was more impressive than I expected it to be here. It's not often I get solid snow rates with ripping SE winds. It's too bad it didn't last very long though.

These past 3 winters have been brutal for snow in the Peoria area. This winter sure takes the cake though. It's crazy how many times all models have agreed on a big dog a few days out or less, only to fall apart last second. The snow falling now is dense pixie dust. I'll be lucky to get over an inch where I live. The winter storm warning headlines add insult to injury lol

I shouldn't have stayed up for the 06Z HRRR

Not liking these drier trends, although I really shouldn't be surprised considering how this winter has gone here. If I get 3" out of this, it'll double what I've had all season.

That's about how it has been in my area as well. This has been the worst winter I've ever witnessed.

Looks like I'm going to make it halfway through met winter without having a snowfall >1" IMBY. Extended appears grim as well. Nothing worse than cold and dry.

No accumulation here, and a report of 3.5" 10 miles to my SE. Ouch.