JustinRP37

The greatest rate of change occurs during the equinoxes and the slowest during the solstices. First day of spring is peak gain, first day of summer around 0, first day of fall greatest loss, and first day of winter around 0.

Feb 2015 was +6.5C? February 2015 was that bitter 'polar vortex' month in NYC area with tons of snow. The +8.3C 12/15 is right about what I had at +7.0C. Nothing will ever compare to that luau we had for Christmas Eve 2015. But yeah it has been a fun time to be involved in ecological/vector-borne disease research. The 2010s have been very interesting weather wise.

I'd almost want to allow my ticks to bite me than poke around eating fungi! I'll never forget one of my undergraduate professors showing us this one species and saying it will give you a great high until you die. Ticks on the other hand take awhile to give you disease, except for Powassan virus which transmits in 15 or less minutes. That is interesting though about your run of BN months. Here in the NYC area during my PhD dissertation 2010-2015, I did have two runs of 3 months below average (J,F,M, 2014, -2.2C) and (J,F,M 2015,-3.5C). I considered anything -.3 to +0.3 as "normal". Anything above or below that I would considered above or below average. Through those 5 years of data we +0.8C overall with the max departure from normal being December 2015 at a whopping +7.0C and the coldest was February 2015 at a freezing -6.7C. I did have one run of 16 months above normal (March 2011 - May 2012) with the average departure being +2.2C. However, June 2012 was +0.3C above normal. Even though I considered that normal, I did not record a 'below' normal months until November 2012. That would have been a run of 20 months in a row with an average departure of +1.9C. From December 2010 to December 2015, a total of 61 months, 38 were >.3C above normal, 11 were 'average' between -.3C and +.3C, and 23 months were >-0.3C below normal. Granted this isn't a huge data set, but I do have the data ongoing, just have to analyze it. Trying to get another publication out looking at correlations between winter weather and tick metabolism etc. Hopefully, I'll get that out soon! It is just really interesting studying the blacklegged tick, aka deer tick, and see how the weather patterns not only affect the tick distribution but also tick-borne diseases. A lot of research still to be done!

Alaska caught me off guard I wouldn’t have guessed that. But the northern plains are nuts with their deviations especially sometimes in the same day! Part of me loves the climate of San Diego, but then that might get boring.

I am not disagreeing on that at all. Winter has always had the most variance when you look at North America, and more so the northeast. You get winds off the ocean at any point and you can jump to 50+, on the flip side you can get colder than cold with a dry cold wind from the north. And higher humidity of the summer months does tend to stabilize temperatures. Dry air is easier to cool and heat. All I was pointing out is in our state of the climate it is much easier to string together above normal months and weeks versus stringing together below average months and weeks.

I agree I wouldn't feel "hot" or "cold" with those temps, but such is climatology. Hence why people will sunbath on a college campus in April at 60 degrees, but not in October at 60 degrees. I don't disagree with you that it is easier to be double digits below average in the winter than double digits above in the summer (high humidity plays a role in limiting extreme positive departures). However, I do disagree that it is easier to be double digits below for any week in any part of the year, especially in the winter. Recent climatology has shown that we can easily torch in winter months (only have to go back to last February). We set record highs and record low highs at a faster pace than record lows.

Actually yes, 30 on 3/5 is cold for many areas in southern New England. That would be 14 degrees below historical average high for Bradley. While 85 on 9/5 at BDL would only be 6 degrees above the historical average high. Much easier to string together above normal weeks than it is to string together below average weeks.

I think you and I would get along. You sound like I do in April! It is one awful part of the year. I always get bitter/sad at the end of summer and winter. The fall isn't bad, but something about thunderstorms in summer and winter snow storms are just truly amazing. Once everyone starts saying they are done with winter, I'm usually thinking one more snow and ski trip!

Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms. Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures.

Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms. Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures.

Power out at work here in Armonk. Huge storm now. Rain like I haven’t seen in ages. Thankfully we have a generator.

I do love how so many people view an agenda with warming. Most scientists, like myself, are not super wealthy people hoping to change everyone's lives. We collect and analyze data. Unfortunately, things get taken out of context and changed all the time. I focus on the blacklegged tick, a tick which has been moving further and further to the north, and higher on mountains to the south. However, one of the biggest issues that most do not even think about is our largest global carbon sink, which is our oceans. Just like basic chemistry, when you release CO2 into a controlled environment with water, some of the CO2 will dissolve in the water. This forms carbonic acid. That is one reason why even seltzer water is acidic. And how do you carbonate a beverage? You release more CO2 into the bottle forcing the CO2 into the water. This is a natural process. But our oceans are huge buffers and have experienced a pH decrease from 8.2 to 8.1, which might not seem like much, but it is a logarithmic scale, so this is actually a 25% increase in the acidity. This can harm corals, shellfish, etc as they cannot form their shells and structures properly. National Geographic had a great article on this last year: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/oceans/critical-issues-ocean-acidification/. It is also something that is starting to be noticed by different fisheries throughout the world. Humans are by far the most intelligent creatures to ever roam this planet. I do believe we have the means to develop technology that will enable us to continue to live in the lifestyle we have become accustomed to, but at a much more eco-friendly level. Just look at the advancements we have made with lighting and MPG in cars over the last decade (not to mention aviation). My prior research was in acid-mine drainage remediation from abandoned coal mines in Appalachia, which has come a long way, but it is a very costly endeavor. I will always be thankful for the abundant clean water that our region has. Anyways, back to a humid week soon! I think we are all getting use to the dews this summer, so much so that a 66 degree dew feels "refreshing"!

There are a few studies that suggest two years after a mast year the nymphal tick population is higher, but in our studies we have never noticed it. It might be a secondary correlation as tamarack said. I think a bigger issue in the highlands is how early it can get cold and stay cold. But just to clarify the snowpack insulates the ticks themselves in the soil. I haven't studied how rodents do with snowpacks, but it might be a good study as well. Where we have seen the blacklegged tick population is north up through the valleys. Montreal now has locally sustained populations as well. So, the deer are the place where this species of tick reproduces. Think of a deer as a singles bar. The male ticks basically mate with as many females as possible, while the female is having her blood meal. The rodents are the primary host for the immature stages, the larvae (which are coming out now) and the nymphs (which have been out since late April through now). The rodents are also the reservoirs for the majority of the diseases carried by this tick. It is interesting in just how many weather variables play into this tick and disease cycle. Some of which are completely confounding, like one year there were lower Lyme diseases cases, but an average year for ticks. Well, upon looking at more data, almost every weekend that year was raining through late June. Most likely less people went out hiking, camping, etc leading, most likely, to the lower cases. I think that is what draws me to this tick as a study organism. It is a lot like the weather, so many moving variables and we learn a little more about them both through great science. I guess maybe we should talk ticks though in the banter thread as this does not follow any models, but the Asian longhorned tick we now have loves this high humidity, so at least something loves these dew points!

Yeah the 40° mark might be a bit warm, but it is a an easy number. Either that or maybe they came off the deer? Once on a host, they don't care about the temperature. Either that or like you said your butt woke them up! They never cease to amazing me though. Once we learn one thing about them, it just opens more doors to discovery, even after all the years of research.

It looks like all you need is really an inch or more of snow and they can do fine with the cold. When there is no snow and you get the brutally cold temps, we do have some data that shows they do not survive well. For whatever reason, the snow cover really helps them go into diapause (their form of hibernation), which helps them retain their lipid level for metabolizing during the true active season. This year, at least in southern NY and New England, we saw below average amounts of the blacklegged tick, but from what I have heard, the north country had higher numbers. The adult stage ticks though are not as affected it seems by winter weather. They will be active anytime the mean temperature is above 40 degrees for a few days. We actually had some adult tick bite cases in late January and February when we had those warm temperatures (which likely hurt the nymphal population). And now the region also has to contend with a new tick on the scene: https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2018/2018-07-17_precaution_against_ticks.htm, the Asian longhorned tick, of particular interest to livestock, pets, and hunters.

As a vector-borne disease scientist it is shocking to see how vectors and diseases are changing/moving as the climate is warming. The best example I give is my main study organism, the blacklegged tick (aka the deer tick). We have been monitoring its northward progression for awhile now, and it is truly is amazing to see. This tick seems to really be affected by winter weather. It does not do well with brutally cold and dry winters. On the flip side, it also does not do well with warm winters. While I have always been into the weather, studying climate really became a focus during the second year of my PhD program when we first noticed that patterns of activity had changed from our historical averages.