JustinRP37

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up.

See my post from yesterday. Getting to the point of the year where just below average won’t do it anymore. Those average temps are racing up now.

Dare I ask who Tony is?

Currently in our data going back to the late 70s (before I was even born) 2012 was the lowest tick season on record for us. Last year was among the bottom 5 as well. We are VERY interested on how this season will be. Early indicators are pointing to a low season.

Took my mini me up to Vermont this last weekend. We went out on Lake Bomoseen. Lake was totally frozen over, but not as thick as normal and definitely below average snow cover. Not as many ice fishing huts as normal. My son enjoyed experiencing winter nonetheless.

It is about being accurate. The people who have been saying don't trust the cold on the models are not saying that because they are biased. They are using skill and knowledge of the setup and the worldwide patterns. This knowledge is often better than a computer program. Remember models are built by humans, and it is humans that have the skills necessary for meteorology. Anyone can look at a model and say look it says cold. One of the big issues is people see snow on a model and think that will be the outcome, meanwhile there are often big keys that the models are not picking up on. Further, your statement of "this year has been exceptionally unlucky with snow but that doesn't mean anything" is not scientific at all. Do not let your emotions get in the way. Look at the pattern. Look at temperature departures from normal throughout the entire northern hemisphere. It is not just us that is having a snowless winter. Much or Europe and Russia are having a complete ratter of a year. After next week you are in March. This is the time of year where people ignore that below average in March does NOT mean always mean freezing. Average daily high for Central Park for today, February 20th, is 42.6F, by March 15th that daily high average is 49.2F and the daily mean is 42.0F. Even a -5 departure does not get the job done. It is one reason why NYC's snow season ends so quickly, especially compared to further upstate. Statistically speaking winter here is done (around the metro area) by March 15th. Can it still snow? Yes, but it will not last long. Spring Training games begin on Saturday. It is time to acknowledge this season blew and WILL NOT reach average for snowfall. At this point I am just hoping we can pull off one dusting before the season is truly done.

The acorn thing is interesting. We have not confirmed that in our own studies, but does not mean that the correlation is not there in other locations. What does seem to work is high precipitation during winter (in particular long duration snow cover) in helping increase the nymphal population in the following year. Ticks are a mid- to long-range thread haha! Not weather wise, but they are really connected to the weather.

I can definitely share some stuff, especially individually (via direct message). There are a lot of different ideas in the tick world, but it is looking more and more like warm winters like this decrease blacklegged tick numbers. Our lab has done work on repellents, seasonality, infection, etc. We also do extensive work with mosquitos too.

I posted about that in the other thread. It is very difficult to have both super high heat and the super high dew points we are having. It is one reason why coastal Florida has never broken 100 degrees. This held down our high temperatures, but elevated our low temperatures. Our highest positive departures over the past two years were actually centered between July and September. In 2018 July was +1.2C, August was +2.4C, and September was +2.3C. Only month with a higher department was May 2018 at +2.8C. In 2019, July was +2.2C and October was +2.1C. March 2019 was -0.4C and and November was -1.8C for departures.

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough.

We set multiple dew point records in the past two summers. It is very hard to have super high dew points and record warm conditions. We can still be very muggy and hot, but to have dews like we have been having and upper 90s to low 100s is very hard to pull off.

Yes but just starting to get there. Very late in the season. Ice fishing derby this weekend up here.

Made it to Bomoseen Vermont! Currently 0 outside! Have about 8 inches of snow on the ground here at the lake. Even here below average season but it looks great! Finally enjoying a winter weekend!

People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited. Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

Well you just hurt me. Put that knife in and turned. All the way up to Stowe?!

Try getting a sun lamp. They do help and I switched our lights to Hue at home. That also helps, but this is God awful weather.

I am glad to be heading up to Vermont in just over 24 hours. Excited to actually see some snow! It should be a great weekend but frigid up there. Even when it is gloomy, snow makes everything so much brighter, and brighter makes me happy. I need it.

This! For me I just cannot take our weather anymore. I feel like the number of gloomy/foggy days has increased exponentially over the past 3+ years. I don't know whether it is as I get older I need sun but the past few years have been brutal. It's one reason we are so focused on job hunt outside the area.

I honestly cannot remember a winter with this many gloomy days. So ready for this to be over.

In early March I am still down but by about mid March I’m ready for it to be over. I hate spring as it is.

Take the extra 45 minutes, gain some elevation and latitude and head to Killington. Should be epic there.

I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps...

See right there, you called mosquitos pests, but frogs and fish would call that meal time. The ecosystem needs the 'pests' quite a bit. I actually got hit hard once in a committee meeting during my PhD when I made a comment that a low tick year was great for humans. While that is true, there are plenty of other organisms that rely on ticks (some of which we probably do not even know about). The warm weather right now may actually hurt those 'pests' more than just staying seasonable. Why? Because they are becoming active and then when (if) it turns sharply cold, they will die without completing their lifecycle. These odd warm periods may through off flowering times, which may impact pollinators and a whole host of ecosystems services. Now if we were talking about reducing the spread of the invasive Asian tiger mosquito then we need much colder temperatures, just seasonable won't reduce egg viability.

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks.

Groundhog took the easy road out and predicted a continuation of spring this ‘winter’. What did NYC’s groundhog predict? https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-30-groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-did-he-see-his-shadow