JustinRP37

They are showing anomalies, not sea surface temps... so the average is already warm, but these are above even the norm.

That’s why we have to refresh it every couple of days ;-). But Central Park is nice covered in snow. But for the most of Manhattan snow just gets gross and turns crosswalks into deep water diving pools.

Who cares about March snow? I mean seriously, in the city and south of White Plains it just melts so fast that it really is just a nuisance. We've literally had years where a foot of snow can disappear in just a few days. This is the prime of winter and I almost need a freaking jet ski to cross Fordham Road! It is literally a swamp out there. I remember in the fall people being worried that once the 'cold' pattern set it that maybe we would switch to a dry pattern. Well unfortunately even when the cold pattern set up, it still is raining. I think this winter may actually be more frustrating than 11-12 merely because when it is actually dry it is too cold to actually do things outside. Then when it is warm, like today, it is pouring rain. I am almost to the point of just preferring frigid and dry just so we can get rid of some moisture!

Sad to report that we are just about at that time where our daily average temperatures begin to rise. For most of the tri-state area this is the week (Friday for my closest station) where average temperatures begin their long, slow journey to spring and summer. Those early season forecasts of a below average temperature meteorological winter are just about done now. February would need a strong negative departure to bring DJF to below average temperatures. Fingers crossed that we can still get to average snowfall, but I am beginning to fear that call too. We will almost certainly finish the season now with below average number of days with snow cover of 1 inch or more area wide.

HPN is running 1.4 degrees F above normal. I could see January being right around normal, but I do not think much if any below. December finished +3.2F. We will see if we can get February to cooperate.

Father in-law in Mansfield, Ohio area reporting sleet and freezing rain. Was supposed to be all snow there.

It seems like our temperatures are above what was modeled a few days ago no? Sitting at 35 here in southern Westchester.

Why do people listen to JB? I really don’t get it. His whole MO is all cold all the time. Well so far his winter forecast has been garbage. Even with the extreme cold coming, as others mentioned it is in Andy out in 36 hours. Then much of the week looks to be in he 30s and 40s. We may even approach 50 on Thursday. We will see what happens in February, but that is one out of three meteorological winter months. I surely do not think it will completely erase the positive anomaly we have this meteorological winter season, but I hope to be wrong. Even a frigid February will likely just bring us to ‘normal’. It would almost need to be historically cold to get us below average for the season.

Unfortunately if there was one giant 36 incher and then back to the upper 40s and 50s, many would say wow look I predicted a ton of snow and we got it! I know I have said it many times, but snowfall is just one part of a 'good' winter. The other is days with snow cover and finally number of nights that snow can be made at the local ski areas. I am hopeful based on current guidance that we are through the roughest part. Many local ski areas should be at or near 100% open by this weekend (late, but thankfully we had that November cold snap).

I really hope this pattern change comes. It has been a pretty dreary winter so far. Even people that hate snow are saying they want snow instead of rain. It has been a truly incredible pattern though when you think about it. Could you imagine if we had a summer where we had a week of 80 in May, and then nothing but the 50s and 60s until the end of July with rain every other day? Pretty incredible when you think about it like that!

Actually it is 10 weeks and 6 days until spring. Winter is sleeping in at this point. Somebody poke her with a stick and get her going. At least get some cold nights so local ski areas can resurface their trails and get to 100% open. Anytime to get to January and you are not 100% open, it is troubling.

To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England.

People always confuse me with the obsession of only considering annual snowfall. Annual snowfall means nothing to winter sports enthusiasts if the vast majority of the winter is a torch. We have had quite a few winters that if you look at snowfall, you'd conclude wow that was a cold winter. As a tick biologist, the duration with snow cover is actually much more important for ticks than just having a bunch of snow that melts within a week. Snow acts as an insulator and does provide many ecological benefits. One day I'll organize my snow cover data better for online posting.

The big difference is scientists aren’t forecasting a 100-200 square mile area when they are forecasting the temperature rise. It is very hard to pinpoint weather conditions, but easier to forecast global temperatures. Even though we are cold, much of the globe is still above normal, and that above normal blob is larger than the cold blob. Basically it is easy to say that it will snow somewhere in December than it is to say Central Park will receive 3-6 inches in December 16th, 2018. Scientists can look at species movements and see how the rise in greenhouse gases will change the weather in the future in the general sense.

It was an epic storm and as much as I loved it, I could do without the power grid going down for a month. Because of that storm, I lost one year of my PhD research, but luckily it was in the beginning of my research. Happy to report I am done with that now though. It was an awesome storm. I drove from Tuckahoe, NY to Avon, CT just as it was starting. It was incredible to literally hear the trees just imploding from the weight.

Let’s get the leaves off the trees before hoping for snow. Leaves still pretty green here in the NYC metro. The Halloween storm was so impactful partly because of the leaves on the trees. And let’s not forget that that after that storm the rest of winter sucked.

Why does anyone want MORE rain up here? I'll take frost covered pumpkins in the morning with sunshine all day giving way to a DRY 60s.

Agree. I want to know where it has been 'dry'. When I go for my runs, I have not seen totally try pavement in quite sometime. It is unbelievably damp out even on our 'dry' days. I don't think we have gone more than 72 hours without some rain in quite some time.

No ocean or Great Lake to tap into for moisture. Their cold is a ‘dry’ cold lol.

But we have been setting many a record high low temperature this 'fall'.

Ditto! Some many leaks this year springing up. Both my office and home. Let us all catch up and let us get some vitamin D with the sun! It looks like we will get that drier weather!

We definitely didn’t have snowcover in much of the area from mid-January through February. In fact we were busy in the lab dealing with ticks that were out!

One thing I am worried about is how averages always seem to win out. With so many locations having near record precipitation, when do we fall back into a dry period? There could be a good chance that we flip to cold and dry. We will see...

But we are still getting the heat... Last night set a record high low at LGA. This time of 80s are still well above normal, but people always forget to look at the low temperatures too. Average daily temperatures have been running above normal pretty much all month with a few breaks. A string of average high temperatures does not mean the pattern is average if your low temperatures are well above average.

Yeah if it could just go ahead and stop raining for a bit that would be nice. Our COOP building had never had as many leaks as this year with how hard and wind driven the rain has been. It is literally finding all the crevices to enter the building. Can't wait to move within a year to a bigger place (hopefully without any leaks because this is ridiculous).