JustinRP37

But can you build a saltman?? We can build saltmen down here! And when we are done with the saltmen we can salt rim our glasses. It is great having salt delivery from the town. (Yes this is sarcasm as I am pretty sure my salt accumulation and snow accumulation are similar this year).

I can't say it enough, what the same forecasters banked on for much of the past decade + is we have been AN, mostly much AN for snowfall. It is a conformational bias, not that they are actually skilled with their LR forecasts. Go look at JB and see how many of his temperature forecasts actually verified? The majority of the time he was always cold and BN temperatures for winter as a whole. However, his snowfall forecasts verified even in warm winters because 1 or 2 big storms would bring us AN for snow. There were several pro-mets calling for BN to N snowfall this year, they just typically are ignored by social media and winter weather enthusiasts because we all love to hear about lots of snow. Problem was say AN snow year in and year out, you were mostly correct since 2000, but not always for the right reasons. There are many others that do the same. Again more snow, more cold = more likes and shares = more revenue.

You don’t have to tell me that it’s statistics. But look at the stats for winters with stats similar to where we are now. I don’t like using analogs but to say everything is going fine is like saying you can fight your own house fire when it has spread to half the house. Sure you might be able to do it, but would I take on that bet? Not likely. I would love to have the optimism of you and 88 but at some point we have to take a look and say hmmm this isn’t what the people who said we’d be above normal for snowfall said would happen this far. I gave many examples of why I thought January would be warmer in December and I was nearly laughed off the board. It sucked. I don’t like losing two months of my favorite season but me saying it will make a big comeback won’t make it happen. I said it yesterday that the Mets who routinely predict snowy and cold have been more right than wrong since 2000 not because of their skill but because it HAS been snowier, much more so than normal. It is a conformational bias. Long range forecasting is an imperfect science. Anything over 50% is a good long range forecast.

How is it still early? Over halfway through met winter and rapidly approaching 2/3rds over. We are behind big time. Can we force overtime (March) and get AN snow? Possibly but teleconnections don’t look good

39 pages for a minor storm. We are desperate!

Most people are not negative and anti cold, just realists. Many do not have biases, just present the data. If anything the board has a cold bias overall because most of us are winter lovers, just aggravated with this winter. Moving forward there isn't much to jump for joy with at least through the beginning of February if not longer. Here is to hoping.

Just odd that 3 miles makes that big of a difference because it is sad right now in Tuckahoe.

Figured it out. Tuckahoe area near Yonkers.

How do you upload photos? Mine won't allow it (too large). Looks like you have about the same 0.5 as me.

Show a pic then because I’m trying to upload one and there is still grass poking through and I’m on the tallest ridge south of White Plains.

I find 1.5 hard to believe I’m 3 miles from the Bronx and I have 0.5 if that

Were people really expecting much today?

Yeah they had a pretty great year last year. Hasn't been as cold as normal, but I enjoy that when skiing now. I've noticed in my 30s now I'm not as warm as I was in my young 20s haha.

Dude look at the statistics and long range. You have two weeks in January (next week looks warmer than average) but we have one signal to track. By the end of February in these parts if you are BN for snowfall you almost always run BN for the season. Not saying it isn't possible, but you are exactly the type of poster I was mentioning about above. When someone says 'it's warm' you say 'but its not over!' Met winter is half over at this point (rapidly approaching 2/3s over) and we are below average for snow and above average for warmth. The month will finish among the top 10 all time warmest. Looking at analogs (which people love when they are cold) it does not look good for finishing the season above average for snow. That is all. I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel except for people that love warmth, but you cannot possibly be sitting there right now thinking A) this winter has gone well for people that like snow and B ) that it might not pan out for those that love snow. I am hoping VT does great because President's weekend I'll be skiing Killington with hopefully tons of snow. If the winter sucks then I'll just go to the spa and look at the mountain and think what could have been.

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen.

A storm like the Boxing Day Blizzard would do! Remember going to bed hearing 6-12 and woke up with feet!

Sometimes I have to laugh. It is a bold call to say NYC finished with less than 20 inches this season, but not a bold call to say that NYC will wind up with 25-30 inches? Right now both solutions are BOTH bold. Why? Because we could easily get 0-5 for the rest of the season or one big bomb that drops 22 inches in February. Both are equally likely at this point in time. So stop arguing over bold calls or not. Hell JB makes bold calls every year and people hang on his every word because he often calls for cold. I have noticed those with cold biases on social media tend to have more followers.... Hmm....

Read about what I posted on the MJO. Even phase 8 does not signal cold weather is imminent! It is only significantly correlated with increased storminess. That could still mean rain, or snow to rain. If timed correctly though could provide a storm, but again MJO really does not look like a huge player in the upcoming pattern.

I've been saying over and over that were are mere mortals on the planet. People try to predict the weather with certainty 7+ days out, when even accuracy within 24 hours can be terrible. All this week I heard about the MJO over and over and over again on social media and here. So, being a research scientist, I decided to take a closer look. The MJO does not guarantee cold or even snow. There is a significant relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and southeastern New England snowfall and Nor'Easter frequency found in multiple studies. Two studies , however, found NO relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and temperature in southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic (Barrett et al. 2015 and Klotzbach 2016). Likely, the increase in snow cover during MJO entering 7-8-1 is driven by increased storminess and NOT a decrease in melt rate. So just because the MJO may be in a good spot, does not necessarily mean we will see the increase in storminess. While the MJO can be used, the other teleconnections and other factors must be monitored. I still want to read more and study these effects, but I know some on this board probably know all this.

The personal attacks are ridiculous. It is OKAY to be critical, but point out where the flaws are. I've been highly critical of JB, yet people still use him. Why do I not use him? Because his skill for forecasting overall temperatures is less than 30% (I ran the numbers about 5 years ago).

Quit the bickering. Focus on the teleconnections and models not on each other. Right now there is support on both sides of the argument but based on what I am seeing the colder argument is winning at least for a week or two. Anyone claiming victory for most of February at this point is just being ridiculous.

Are you in Armonk or NYC metro? I have seen you post both...

The most frustrating thing about winters like this is the models always show something just over there towards the end of their run. Then we discuss it for awhile only for that to then appear as snow to rain and then closer to the event mainly white rain and then plain rain. It is frustrating. Hoping to head to Vermont in February to see some ‘winter’.

Yeah but based on today’s trends it’s going to be hard to even get that 2-4 in the metro area. I’d personally go for an inch or less in Manhattan and similar for southern Westchester. Maybe 2 inches in parts. Northern Westchester maybe 1-3. Just not looking good.

So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season.