JustinRP37

It does have much more staying power than regular snow! Much less surface area to volume makes it much more dense and harder to melt. Sleet makes a great dense ski base, but then we usually like to have some nice fluff on top!

Looks like it is above freezing there at 33 on weather stations.

This isn’t a static system. People think that the models are ‘static’. You build them and they work. That’s not the case. They are always changing and improving. The problem is the environment is also always changing. It is is like trying to hit a bulleye when the dart board is moving. The further you stand from that dartboard represents the longer range, meaning it is very hard. They will definitely use all seasons as learning experiences to improve the models.

Yeah last summer we shattered the record for number of days with dew points at or above 70F. It was downright Miamiesque for a good portion of the summer for humidity. It was not, however, a super hot summer, but it definitely was above normal and VERY humid for the region.

I don’t get the point of calling out people for missed forecasts. If we pointed out all the calls for straight snow a week out, we’d be well over average with snowfall.

Not at all what I am trying to do. I am just pointing out that we need to stop relying on the LR this winter as that has not panned out. Further, we have been really lucky in the past decade to get these epic storms. Some of it was just dumb luck. People forget the 80s and 90s. We had many 'favorable' periods and yet we just did not get much. Problem is many people now expect that NYC sees 40+ inches a year. Historically that just has not been the case, ever. This decade though year. Maybe it continues to increase substantially in the future. Keep in mind most climate models do have us continuing to warm, but do see increased snowfall in the 'short' long term. These models so far have been pretty spot on. Going back to this season though, my own forecast for the season was for 100-120% of our annual average. However, I must acknowledge at this point that if we do actually hit that number it is truly because of dumb luck with a properly timed storm and not because of what I was seeing in the LR in autumn. Anybody who tells you that they called for this type of winter back in October is lying.

Yes that is exactly the type of snow that is so frustrating. It goes into the record books yet it doesn't make anyone feel like winter was actually around.

Yes, this is a terrible winter for snowfall. But don't forget this is like the 3rd time we have seen the majority of models getting us into a favorable MJO cycle only to collapse within the 5 day span. The phase 8 is still in the long range. Further, snowstorms are not solely dictated by the MJO. Yes it is tied into a lot of teleconnections, but the Pacific has been a problem all year. Now the AO is looking to rocket into the ++++ zone, which yes it can still snow, but in my experience it becomes tough. We all want snow (well most of us anyways), but you cannot let your desires cloudy your judgement. Who cares what the Mid-Atlantic posters are talking about? The long range guidance this winter has been worse than a steaming pile of dog crap. That is just it. The long range now brings us into March. Most of the mid-Atlantic starts to really struggle with snow then. Remember they are further south, and their window is rapidly closing as well. Based on statistics it will be VERY hard to get us to normal this season. Yes, one massive storm could do it, but I am not willing to put all my eggs in that basket so to speak. And again, snow that just melts in a few days is a tease and miserable. Sure it is pretty, but give me snow that will stay around a week so I can enjoy it.

Further, every year except 2011-2012 has featured AN snowfall in the NYC metro. That truly is phenomenal. People now expect it. If we have AN for two more seasons, this would be the first decade with only 1 BN season. While each year is treated individually, statistics always wins in the LR.

People are putting way too much stress on one issue or another. Sure the MJO has been a problem, but let's not act like that was our ONLY problem. Other things have gone wrong too. And for the MJO, it isn't going to be in phase 8 for the first storm, and based on how models have been in the past, it might not even get to phase 8. We have seen the MJO model in the LR go horribly wrong throughout this winter, so let's not keep repeating "but the MJO".

From Upton this evening regarding next week: basically let’s get closer before we get too excited for accumulating snow. Systems in the extended have trended warmer for much of this winter and it is quite possible we are already seeing signs of this occurring in the latest model runs. High pressure builds back into the region for the end of the week

This is definitely not true. Upton does not go model to model. These are literally people who have devoted their life to the study of meteorology. No offense but they are not just about weather enthusiasts. They get slammed when they are conservative and they get slammed when they ‘hype’. It really is a thankless job. Further when people slam models they really do not understand the complexity of the models. I have a PhD in the sciences and what these models do and the people that build them simply amaze me. There is some complex calculus that goes into these models not to mention all the programming.

Yeah that is the other part of it. With people going on about how much they hate snow, I have to remind them that many people rely on snow for either supplemental income or their whole income. Think of the ski areas in southern NY, New England, and what not. Then all the crews that do supplemental work for winter recreation. Landscapers often need the snow for increased revenue in the 'off-season'. What part of Vermont do you go to? We like to head up to Bomoseen and then ski at Killington. Killington is always insane with the snow, even on years where we get nothing. I'd even go so far as to say early April can be a strong winter month there. Combine that with their massive snow making capabilities and you never have to worry about weather.

https://www.axios.com/earths-5-warmest-years-have-occurred-since-2014-cc42f4bb-dbc6-40b7-b478-0ce942fab2d0.html The 5 warmest years have all been 2014 and we still got some amazing storms. Increased temperature = increase moisture in the atmosphere.

I'm not disagreeing about next week. If we can get some good snow in here then good. What I am pointing out is people saying well what about last year? I personally think late March and April snow is rubbing it in our faces of what could have been. That being said, October 31st, 2011, was still the craziest snowstorm I have ever lived through. And I don't think people are throwing in the towel yet on this season, but if next week does not pan out, then yes that ledge will be full.

Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow.

People do have PTSD this winter because we have “been in the game” many times this winter only for it to be rain.

No doubt cool weather is great. Nothing like the 50s and 60s with full sunshine. It's the wetness I don't like. That's why I love snow so much. You can go out in it and enjoy it without getting soaked. Go for a run in the rain and mist and it is gross.

First person I have met that enjoys mud season. What is special about wet springs? Why not enjoy the sunshine?

Exactly. I often get people asking why have we seen more substantial snowstorms if the nearby ocean is warm. I tell the the same thing, we got a lot of fuel that feeds the moisture into the system and throws it back to the coast. That is one reason I am holding out hope that we can at least approach normal snowfall levels. If we can get to above normal snowfall this year and next, then the 2010s will be the only decade on record with only 1 below average snowfall season. It is pretty spectacular actually. We just pretty much expect a lot of snow at this point.

Very cool article! Shows just what happens when you get some serious upwelling. We saw that a few times this summer too when got some upwelling and temps crashed.

No they are not. It is the sea surface temperature (2m) anomaly based on the mean from 1981 to 2005. That is the standard used in oceanic studies at the time. No clue why it is different than the time period we use for air temperature normals. I have a background in aquatic studies, so I know this stuff. The sea surface is what affects our weather, which is what these maps are showing. Gain depth in water and you rapidly cool. World-wide ocean temp below 1000 meters is right around 4C. The thermocline in a given area does not change much. The sea surface is what varies throughout the year. This is actually one of the coolest properties of water, and hence why northern lakes can upwell twice a year. Water is most dense at 4C, after which it becomes less dense as it crystallizes into ice. Warmer than 4C and it becomes less dense as well. Hence why our warm water floats on the colder water in the summer.

This is from today though. The waters east and north are normal to above normal. The only below normal sea surface temps are in the mid-Atlantic right up against the coast. However, even average water temps really can deliver those nasty BDCF days. Hopefully though they won’t last as the gloomy days really get to me.

Sea surface temps are not that below normal up and down the east coast. They have been fairly above average until the arctic blast.I

We don’t believe it yet because if we trusted LR guidance this year vertbatim we should have had tons of snow already. Once we actually see things getting closer than day 10-15, the we can start talking about it. There are still many mixed signals, so anyone claiming an end to winter or the appearance of a super snowy pattern is just showing their bias. We cannot allow our personal biases guide our analysis. You cannot discount what you don’t ‘agree’ with. The pattern will be colder but as we just saw that might not translate to snowy for our area. We’ll see. I’m hopeful but too many mixed signals still.