JakkelWx

Thursday night will become a far cry from the next three nights including Thursday morning. The wind flow becomes southerly on Thursday, bringing more humid conditions with temps close to 70 that day... then we summer on Friday, with temps surpassing 80F. Should be a stellar weekend minus showers on Sunday but with temps in the mid 70s and a coming ridge advertised on the models might reverse the cooler water anomalies off the East Coast. Waters are running pretty cold off the New England and upper mid-atl coast due to the record cold we've just had. Interesting thing to note, it feels like this is the ridge that increases the tendency for more ridging to develop, bringing sustained warmth due to the water temp anomalies warming. We may have the risk for backdoor cold fronts though, as this seems to happen every spring now and in May. The trough up north may stay far enough away that BDCFs may only reach as far south as NYC.. 500 mb height anomaly maps aren't everything. We don't live at the 500 mbar level. Ridges don't always mean warmth, especially if there's a trough to the northeast which would serve to bring cooler conditions under the ridge to a certain point. I think it all boils down to the placement of the trough over Canada. On the GEFS there does seem to be lingering trough issues, particularly during the period between Monday and Wednesday where there is a brief relaxation in the ridge over the U.S allowing for cooler air to draw in from New England for a brief time before another ridge pulse sends it back north and we torch.. there may also be the risk for some thunderstorms during the times when the flow becomes NWerly. Still plentiful blocking over the arctic in the AO regions, however not much in terms of -NAO... in fact, looks more +NAO till later in the run where ridging develops again over the Baffin Bay region. -NAO may actually help with bringing warmer than normal temperatures later in May as a -NAO doesn't affect us as greatly as it does in the early spring. I think how hot we get will depend on the placement of the trough in the W US over the coming days, which will also affect our risk for the all-hated BDCF. All things said I think we're in for a warm to hot period for weather across the eastern U.S for at least the next 2-3 weeks or so, minus the BDCF risk. With cool-neutral to weak La Nina conditions developing over the summer and as I type this (IIRC La Nina brings hot summers to the E US). Today is a pretty windy day again. Only the 59493th time so far and it looks to be 59494th counting today.

torch!!

Of course we go right into summer from the 5 months of March we just had. @BristowWx I'm saving that term lol. I love it. BECH all the way from May 15 to October 15 game on

BAMWX going gung ho in regards to the warmer pattern setting up

48F here

Tonight I plan to get drunk off of hand sanitizer to prevent COVID.

Annual return event!

Any winter is better than this one we just had

We tend to do REAL well with cold chasing precip.

Just had some delicious pumpkin pie that i bought from the store earlier today.

WTF is this twitter page https://twitter.com/JointCyclone Didn't know they named random lows in the north Atlantic especially assigning them categories (Mar 1)

there was probably a foot of snow in june down here during the maunder minimum

Maybe some flurries here from this system? In May of all months lol.

damn

Any good beer suggestions? I only have experience drinking hard liquor and also straight out of the bottle. Thanks in advance.

Had some delicious Enchiladas tonight to go along with a margarita. My have been dinner good eat delicious.

We got highs barely above 50F tomorrow and Saturday, over 20F below norms for this time of year due to an exhausted cold supply up north.

crankyweatherguy says the cold supply is exhausted!

Pretty epic sunset.

Thirsty Thursday.

Lixion Avila has retired from the NHC.

Doubt we see a really cold pattern from now on. Most of the cold supply up north has been exhausted. Thinking a few days if not maybe a week of below normal temps but still relatively "mild" due to climatology warming. No real sustained warming until after May 15th is a likely bet.

Hurricane Dorian's TCR has just been released: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf

DCA +0.6 NYC +0.2 BOS -0.5 ORD +0.7 ATL +2.0 IAH +0.6 DEN +1.1 PHX +1.4 SEA -0.5