JakkelWx

Just realized that a storm is passing D.C to the north. I can barely focus after I just had a DFH 120 min

I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth

There seems to be another line forming W of DC. Maybe a repeat of last night's line of storms here?

Pocket of 3000 J/kg of CAPE just to my north. Outflow boundary showing up on satellite from storms that have fizzled to my south.

Low level lapse rates are around 7.5 - 8 here but the mid level lapse rates are meager.

Already a cumulus field popping over my house today. Last night produced far better than I thought it would. It was premature to call this a bust. Today looks like a flooding and a lightning threat.

No SVR watch here yet, and there probably won't be. How lame can these threats get??

Lame... line is going to completely miss to the north here. We drought.

ANOTHER AOI and it's only May 28th. Third one. 30/30. Chances are pretty low for development, and if development occurs, it will likely be subtropical in nature. Can you imagine if Cristobal formed right before June 1st, making it the third named pre-season storm? Either way, possibly a grim sign of what's to come during peak hurricane season. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic. 1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

17/10/6

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas. 1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Latto

Full sun here but clouds are just beginning to move in. 62/50.

Tornado warning The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Kent County in central Delaware... East central Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland... Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

Biiig wind gust incoming. This storm is hauling a*s

There is a shit ton of wind here.. a few weak branches snapped.

What's your prediction for the coming summer? I predict that a cloud is gonna form somewhere in the U.S.

I thought it was mid july looking at the activity of this thread, until I looked at the trees outside and the temperature

Welcome to Mid-Atlantic winter climo.

I won't mind a changeover as long as I get some good snow TV with at least some accumulation before then

One thing is for sure: The pattern will change sometime this week, and it will possibly get quite cold along with many snow chances. This looks like a 3-4 week deal and done.

ECMWF Monthlies are brutally cold for February. Dunno if already posted somewhere back as it initialized on the 5th.

18z gfs is on crack

Almost all AO members are positive heading into Jan per latest indices.