JakkelWx

When you have a bombing low with a 1040 mb banana high overhead, watch out. If you bring this low another 50 miles north, you open yourself up to very impressive winds. I mean look at this. That is a category 1 hurricane equivalent cyclone. This would mean blizzard conditions closer to the low verbatim. Also, what PSU basically said above, the GEFS's h5 presentation doesn't support suppression. Its OP run is further north, by a good 100 miles or so. I posted a couple pages back a five run trend north with the system on the GFS. The other models have also been showing this. I agree with PSU that this likely won't be some farce north trend like the last two systems. Expect wobbles to continue back and forth until they hone in on a general area of where the LP should go, by 12z Sunday or Monday. I aim to have no more than a 50-100 mile shift in the track between model runs by 12z Sunday. DT said we won't really know fully until after the 25th storm passes, or maybe a little before then. From there we can sweat the details like thermal profile, mesoscale banding, etc.

PSU's most recent post gives me comfort.

Watch late next week's storm trend south and it ends up being 2018 all over again. 00z GFS is going to show the low 200 miles further south and it doesn't budge.

Pretty strong signal for a 1040+ HP stationed in the right spot. You want it to be a little west of our longitude so the cold air comes directly from the north instead of the NE. The GEFS though is about 100 miles or so south of the OP.

after the storm on D7, we get a cutter but it brings in arctic cold down from above. Cross polar flow.

Dare I say this looks similar to 2016 around D7?

Little too much confluence on the 18z GFS for the thursday storm, BUT there is better PNA ridging (further west, taller ridge by a good 100 miles or so).

Looking good.

Some bombs in there

shades of feb 1979

That's a little warm, don't ya think?

Not bad. 190% of my seasonal total last year (1.9'')

Randy is getting old??!?!

I heard it predicted a 48 inch BECS from New Orleans to Boston on Feb 5th.

It's BS. Ignore it.

The r/s line on the GFS should not be that far north, at h168.

Precip arrives in the evening

That must mean miller b potential. east based block

Yet another instance where the models shift north and I will likely end up all rain AGAIN for the 26th. If I don't receive at least 6 inches by the 1st week of February, I am officially out of this pathetic winter. Like come on, is that too much to ask for? This winter will receive an F- if I don't get at least one snowstorm between the last week of January and the 1st week of Feb, then I don't know what else to say. What else will it take to get one? Despair on a truly epic scale. @WxWatcher007 bring out the winter despair index?

1/20 - Trace 1/25 - Dusting Seasonal total: Traceting