Man WTF I didn't expect this stupid ass TPV to screw everything over. I hope it trends so far south that southern Virginia gets very little snow because it's too warm.
Much more realistic than the 12km NAM on TT, which gives us a foot of snow. FYI i'm back from my little break, but I'll just be lurking and checking out the other thread.
I will not be tracking anything in Feb, even if anything comes. I am not going to put myself through that kind of stress for another month, with little results.
And with that, I will be taking a break for a while, starting now.
12z EPS.. yeah it doesn't look good. Too far south. The model with the overamped bias is the furthest south. Lemme tell ya folks, I hate to say it, but this probably isn't gonna end up how we want it.
The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability.
That was a HUGE difference in track on the GEFS, and a majority of members are tucked in between the OBX and Norfolk. Much more consolidated signal too.
Better jet dynamics, less confluence but the main precip shield misses to the south. There was worse PNA ridging though, change that and move it 100 miles further west and it's game in.