Holston_River_Rambler
-
Posts
6,199 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
-
I guess it would have been more accurate to say the precip is more SW -> NE than SSW -> NNE -
0z NAM looks like it will come in better than 18z. Precip. is more WSW -> ENE, instead of SW -> NE. A little flatter flow than 18z. Still a bit of LP into the east TN foothills, but better than 18z IMO.
-
Yeah: weathermodels is so slow sometimes, the precip type is only out to hour 30 and this is as close as I can zoom
-
Actually I got a second to grab this (no Kuchera available):
-
Can't post the map right now, but the 18z Euro looked pretty similar to 12z, maybe even a tick weaker and SE with the precip shield.
-
I don't think there was a huge change in the 18z NAM. It's still past 60 hours anyway. I think you could argue it was flatter in some ways (surface low placement at 6z Saturday) and more amped in others (surface low strength at 9z Saturday) than its 12z run.
-
0z EPS left and 12z EPS right:
-
Looks like the mean went down at Nashville and Jackson KY too. To me that signals that it sees a flatter system overall. Of course all this is based on the SREF and it doesn't always indicate what the NAM will do during that long excruciating wait between the 12z Euro and the 18z NAM.
-
If the SREF H5 vorticity map is right, the NAM will probably come in flatter too. Probably a good thing with a last minute NW adjustment still on the table.
-
SREFs in an hour, lol
-
Yeah it looked like it flattened the system out a bit and made a clean pass. Will be interesting to see how all this plays out in March. Is the reality of the system more amped and does it have more precip? I'll be in Boone, so John upstream from me should be locked into half a foot, lol.
-
Kuchera Map:
-
12z Euro:
-
Looks like it will keep the surface low east of the Apps. East of Charlotte at hour 72.
-
To me it looks like a snow sounding, especially with heavier rates, but honestly wouldn't put much faith into it until I saw it falling, lol.
-
pretty different profile around Knoxville: More tapered, sort of a warm cheek. I have no idea if those soundings are realistic.
-
Looks like the 12z GFS saw a warm nose at 700 mb for some reason in the Cumberland county area:
-
Looks to me like it came in slightly SE from 6z, but not as SE as 0z. Not a huge jump either way.
-
Looks like a little more confluence, might be a tick SE.
-
Actually I dug around on weathermodels and found the NBM: Looks like the NBM is more of a blend of their low end amounts and the 10% chance amounts
-
I don't have access to the NBM anymore on Pivotal, but I'm going to go with that map is the NBM.
-
In the qpf frames it looked like it downsloped TRI quite a bit.
-
6z Euro (no Kuchera available)
-
Precip. type maps take forever on weathermodels for the 6z and 18z runs of the Euro, but here is the 18z Euro qpf: Only out to hour 90, so still some snowfall afterwards:
-
Looks like the 18z Euro is slightly deeper with the southern energy, compared to 12z, out to hour 66.
