Holston_River_Rambler
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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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March thread is up and running. I can always edit it (at least I think I can) if it all ends up being a bust and just make it a general spring thread. -
March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread
Holston_River_Rambler posted a topic in Tennessee Valley
Does this winter leave like a lion or a lamb? Here I sit at 1300' on the plateau at 6:30 am on Feb 23. The temps are in the mid 60s - lower 70s. The old old folks used to say we had to pay for this kind of weather in winter? Will we this year? -
The pattern at the end of the 6z GFS looks (not exactly the same) but awfully familiar :
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WRT the early March window I had made the call for (above), I admit that I didn't anticipate the SSWE having this much of an impact on the window we've had every month since the Fall via MJO progression. It def. looks to me like it has transported coder than average temps to the tropopause of the tropics via the Brewer Dobson circulation and enhanced convection in less favorable areas. Did it even enhance TC Freddy in some way? But it does look to loop out of COD/ phase 7 as most of you can see from any recent MJO RMM maps people have been posting. We'll see, but I think adding 10 days to the dates I posted above wouldn't be too far off. And look, I'm not trying to salvage some BS call by throwing out some word soup, I really don't care that much at this point and am enjoying the muggy weather this AM, but I do kind of worry that we might get some sort of a late Dec pattern repeat in mid March. I'll take it as long as we don't destroy a bunch of trees and pipes. Maybe the shortened wavelengths and sun angle help this time? Maybe it doesn't apply anymore, but I remember the old folks saying that when we had this extreme warmth in winter, even late winter, we would "have to pay for it" later. To that end, and Carver's you may have mentioned it, is it March thread time since that is where we've mostly been looking now?
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One thing I'll say about this day 8 - 10 storm on the GFS, is that the -NAO is in full swing by that time. We have seen storms trend south with time when that is present. And yeah, before someone says it, it is late in the season, lots could go wrong, and it is 10 days out on the GFS.
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If anyone wants to torture themselves in middle TN, take a look at the 12z GFS snowfall around hour 250.
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Euro OP looks like it has the strong -ve NAO at the end of its run too. Like Carver's said, we probably end as we began. That NAO retrograded so far so as to trigger an -ve EPO and that is what kicked the arctic loose in late Dec. Will that be how it plays out again?
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Yeah I figured (hoped) they called it the "decadal" oscillation instead of the "multi-decadal" oscillation for a reason. But it does look like it can be up to 20 - 30 years though. Although this source says it has been flipping more erratically lately: https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/#:~:text=The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO,or a 'warm' phase. The NOAA graph looks a little more optimistic than the 20 - 30 years suggested above: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
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At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something.
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One thing that is interesting over the past few days (and I know I'll probably get some flak for the "can-kicking" nature of this post) is that the strat warming seems to have done what it did (in I think 2019). It may have caused some cooling over the tropical tropopause that has enhanced the MJO just as it was over the Maritime Continent. The basic idea is that when there is a SSWE, the upper levels of the troposphere cool and enhance the MJO convection wherever it is at at time. Webb called it back in January: We've had these loop-d-loop runs in previous Ninas, but not so much this year. Delayed but not denied watch needed? And besides, we have to hit a 80 a few times to get the trees budding out for that 1050 arctic high the second week of March lol.
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Beautiful vivid lightning IMBY on the plateau!
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I'll believe it when I see it at this point, but the Hi res models are pretty gung ho about some snow showers behind the front tomorrow AM. HRRR: and is that a little low to the lee of the Apps I see?
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My parents told me about the late 70s, but I wasn't born until '83. My mom grew up near Duffield, VA and told about some huge snowflakes during one of those late 70s storms. Speaking of cold the long range GFS cuts off the trough just off the west coast and we get, if not snowy, a cold look: There and gone from one run to the next, but at least another option on the table and maybe that is the sort of look we start to see as the MJO wave progresses east.
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I don't know which of the shear maps is the best to look at so I just chose bulk shear. Looks like some of the best os over central TN and s central KY for now.
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I DO NOT know as much about severe as most, but I will say it looks like the shortwave is pretty long and the best dynamics seem to be with the northern end of it (red circle), while the lower end (purpleish circle) is what will swing through tonight and cause a second surge of heavy precip.
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Looks to me like the surface front is right along the MS river in west TN now:
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I swear on the OP models it almost looks like the "wave riding the front" scenario, but it's just so warm we don't get any snow with said wave. Sort of presents like an extra uumph of precip coming out of the Gulf between 0 and 12z overnight. What I'm looking at is the front looks like it is through NW MS at the start of that gif, but then the precip starts to build back and hammers the plateau eastward with heavy precip after midnight. But hey, at least there might be a flurry or two tomorrow above 2500' lol. I'll go back and hide now in my "winter without winter weather" thread.
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I think it partly has to do with the fact that they represent very cold, very dense air and it tends to slide down the front range of the Rockies first, since they typically originate in NW Canada.
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I honestly don't think I've seen a 50/50 H5 type set up like some of these runs on the GFS since I've been posting. That's not to try and hype anything up, please no one read it that way. It's a new set up for me, so hopefully something to learn successful or not.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
@Carvers Gap We may have a problem, lol: https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-ai-messages-microsoft-bing-b2282491.html Chat GPI may have gained sentience and is perhaps not happy it has been enslaved to create stupid messages. I'm considering apologizing to it soon for the above questions I asked it. -
Deep Dive Wx Discussion Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Here is a deep plunge from Amy Butler on SSWE and their correlation to -NAOs: TL/DR this SSWE has a higher than normal chance to create a negative NAO, but sample size is small. -
6z GFS shows some of the better potential with the -NAO and crucial 50/50 pattern, while the 0z shows how it could go downhill: Not a textbook perfect look, but it gets it done for some of our area. Lower heights over the Canadian Maritimes locked in by an east based -NAO. I used the COD NEXLAB scheme below, just because it has more blue over me. 0z shows how this could all develop the other way. NAO doesn't push west enough and everything stays north of us: A lot of uncertainty on the ensembles wrt the late month. Look at the spread on the 0z EPS for the 24th of Feb: Spread really starts around the 22nd, the time frame for the NAO to first start to flex. I personally think it is a bit rushed, as things tend to be in out in model land. MJO actually made it through the warm phases on the RMM plots fairly quickly for once:
