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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    FEDEX is warning me that they are "closely monitoring the Winter Storms across portions of the US". I've seen this before when they were about to delay a package, but at least then there was a significant winter storm to monitor. As of my typing this there are WWAs for portions of the Uinta mountains and the Bitter Roots as well as a few WSW for slivers of Wyoming. I really can't find these dire storms anywhere .
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://tricities.craigslist.org/gms/d/sweet-ass-garage-sale-this-is/6572775564.html Can someone who lives up that way pleassssseeeeee go look at this next weekend??!!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good call @Knoxtron There looks to be more on the way. Just saw this from the same friend in Cumberland county. This one is on the road from Dayton, TN to Pikeville, TN (Highway 30). Glad we get to dry out for a bit.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    GIFs causing no problems here. On an observations note, apparently the rain is starting to take its toll. There was a small landslide on highway 68 between Spring City, TN and Grandview, TN (this is a state highway from the Valley to the Plateau). The road is now closed. Image taken from 105.7 News facebook page.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was thinking today it almost looked like a tropical depression that was wobbling around.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    What do y'all think of this weird little Bahamas low the GFS has on again off again spun up toward the end of its past few runs? It looks to me (if the GFS past 10 days is to be believed) that some energy swings through and down and gets trapped under a developing Bermuda high. Maybe the high is part of my much longed for pattern adjustment? Hopefully not a quick switch to a dry torch as y'all suggest, though it wouldn't surprise me in the least and to be fair I'd take a two week dry torch, but then bring some nice afternoon T-Storms in, rolling off the mountains. I seem to remember the GFS has some problems with trying to spin up systems like this in the early summer, when in fact nothing like it will happen. But it's been a year, so can't quite remember. If it were to materialize it could have an impact around here and might be something interesting to watch. Edit: Annnnnnndd I could just be fantasizing about tropical weather and Bermuda highs at this point...
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even been snowing near downtown Knoxville for the past 3 hours. Went out for a run and it really started peppering down toward the end.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even some snow in Knoxville this AM and on my way home. Caught a "snow-bow?" on my way to work. Is that even possible? It was a rain/ snow mix in the valley, so I imagine it had to be all snow at cloud level.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's what I thought too when I first noticed the haze. I couldn't believe there'd be any fire danger after the spring the area has had and maybe it is some other sort of fire other than a forest fire, but when I looked at GOES 16 visible it looked just like a fire. Whatever they are, they didn't start until about noon - 2 PM yesterday so that may be why you didn't see anything. Whatever they are I'm glad it's going to rain this weekend in the area.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fires in N. Georgia really hazing up the S / SW sky here in Knoxville. Figured we'd had enough rain to drown any chance of something like that, but the air was really dry today and it was windy. Apologies, should also add I hope all are ok. As a side note, these fires really show up on NT microphysics setting on GOES 16. Not totally sure that's what it is depicting, but it really seems that way
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro weeklies Perfect timing for my camping trip to the Southwest...as expected. Been watching the CFS weeklies (all I have access to) and currently am glad I delayed the camping trip this year since I think hope the later it is, the harder it gets for a 500mb trough to have as much of an effect on sensible weather. Slowly but surely, run after run, that trough is settling in to the southwest for early to mid May. Was really hoping we'd get a pattern flip and a ridge here for a few weeks and then another adjustment towards mid-May, so I wouldn't have to deal with bowling balls there, but alas its looking like a quick relax and then the same old, same old, only to finally flip when I head out there. Jeff should be happy though, since my trip may mean plains severe. At least the low height anomalies in the SW aren't as gruesome as they looked this time last year. Maybe...they wont trend deeper... Even though it may mean bad news for me, still appreciate the Euro weeklies update Carvers. No sarcasm intended, I really do mean it. I'd rather know and be prepared.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    A friend of mine had a video on facebook of all snow in Powell, so it got close to me.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally getting a few medium sized snowflakes mixed in with the rain near downtown Knoxville. It has been trying so hard here. I drove out for a bit and I'm sure all of you know that ice crystal splat that wet snow has on the windshield... well the rain was splatting with individual drops where the crystals must have been a few hundred feet up.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Echoes seem to have just appeared out of nowhere on Huntsville radar. I wouldn't have looked if you hadn't mentioned you were getting snow, Carvers. I'm getting hopeful to see some snow in Knoxville now too!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, if the 0z was evidence yesterday was a good old fashioned NAMing, the 6z looks even worse. Radar looks robust upstream, but Hi-Res models show precip. drying up as the day wears on. The HRRR gives some hope for precip moving back in near nightfall, but if that is to be believed I might do just as well hiking up to House Mountain in Knox county to see snow as I would going up to Hensley Settlement. It would be nice if the ampy NAM was at least as optimistic as the HRRR, but many a time I've seen the HRRR make promises it can't keep. Another thing that makes me pessimistic is that I can't even see the energy on watervapor or IR, even though SPC mesoscale analysis shows it near Oklahoma City. I'm not great at reading satellite imagery, but for a surprise this evening, I'd like to see some sort of vort. starting to crank up. Suppressed by a High in April?????? Perhaps we end as we began this winter. Not totally ready to write it all off since sometimes precip. will hold together better than modeled, but in a very limited area.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm thinking about scooting up to Hensley Settlement in Cumberland Gap NP tomorrow afternoon. Should be right at 3000 feet. Will wait to see what the trends are today though to decide.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm with John. This is coming though at the worst possible time of day, but just seeing some snow falling is cool in April. As John says northern areas and elevation, but unlike a lot of the systems this year this one on Saturday afternoon looks like a Miller A so Blunderstorm (if everything plays out well) you should only have to deal with normal daytime heating issues and no valley warm nose. I'd say you are the best situated of us all. Also of interest: looking at the Hi-Res models there is a distinct backdoor front dropping down through VA and NC. Normally there is some cold air damming with these storms, but this front looks pretty stout in that it is visible on simulated radar. If that can make it to your location Blunderstorm it might give you some enhancement, but unfortunately I bet it stops at that Wytheville/ Marion cutoff we've talked about. The NAM Nest actually shows it making it to Blountville, TN. Either way should be fun to watch on radar. There have been some changes in the system for Monday/ Tuesday as well. The GFS has been trending to emphasize the second piece of energy that is dropping further south. I think we've yet to see all the surprises that one has too. I say let's get this one through and then see what the next one will do. After that, sunshine and warmth I hope. I know I may have seemed down on the snow lately, so apologies, but I needed a break with a bit of sun and warmth. I've had a little break and am ready for one last hurrah.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z, 12k NAM has the second low again and gives a *little* snowy love to Tri-Cities, SWVA, and higher elevations up that way on Sat afternoon. RGEM has the secondary piece of energy too, and the NAM 3k, but neither of these look as robust. The H5 energy responsible for all this looks to be scooting right along, but turns enough to generate a bit of precip. This thing is indistinct on the models, so I wonder if it has any more surprises in store as it gets closer. Safe to day though that as of now, as other have pointed out above, probably not good that it comes through during prime day time heating. Also interesting that the Hi-Res models show a potent squall line in MS and LA. Almost has a Mesoscale Convective (C or S) look to it, but not sure on the definitions for those. If that is the case wonder how that impacts the secondary system if at all?
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I noticed this morning with the end of the 6z NAM run (I know, but hear me out) is that it is trying to develop a second low that looks like it might want to run more up the coast (in a SW-NE direction) at the end of this weekend system. I was trying to figure out why and the answer seems to be it has a stronger jet streak at 250mb over the midwest helping buckle the trough. The GFS and GEFS had been trending to a sharper trough as well, but backed off at 6z. The Euro and CMC have been trending that way too. Sometimes I think the NAM is good and hinting at changes although like a pendulum, the NAM runs can swing widely and the end seems to be somewhere in the middle. I looked at the EPS member snow swaths to see if any showed a more SW - NW trajectory. Maybe 2 did. The rest were pretty W - E which would indicate a more "slider" type solution and the vast majority were north, but a notable few get Blunderstorm and Kentucky in on the fun. Bottom line: this could be a whole lot of nothing, even though all the models seem to want to show the low sliding into the TN valley as of now (a likely solution given the pattern this year), I'm not quite sure we've seen the final solution to all this yet. EDIT: WPC Winter Wx probabilities for day 4 are optimistic for northern areas Also: starting to think I shouldn't have been so quick to back off on my ~10 -13th period for a big, pattern changing cyclone. GFS, EURO, CMC all now show another coastal (for NE) and then a big cut off low in the midwest.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like some nice instability
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw Michael Ventrice on twitter say he thought this was going to be the biggest outbreak so far this year, but I suppose he could have been hyping to get followers. I just don't know enough about looking at severe parameters to tell how significant this looks. Also since I'm on the other side of the plateau and all this looks to be moving W - E, usual that means everything has consolidated and weakened by the time it gets to the eastern valley. I was surprised by the T-storms this morning and maybe that indicates the atmosphere is a little more prepped that it may seem at first glance? At work in Harriman right now and there are a lot of clouds here and that usually (but not always) spells stability, at least for my neck of the woods. But looks like the deck is starting to break up on GOES 16.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice thunderstorm rolling in through Knoxville this morning. Looking back, not much depicted on the models, although the latest HRRR sort of has it, but then again it probably initialized with it already developing. The storm and its tiny kin folk running from Loudon county north aren't that large, but probably the most thunder I've heard from a storm this year.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I was wrong about 10th - 13th period and this storm (the one John is posting about) is the transition storm. Like the "April Fool's" one that came through about 3 days earlier than the longer range models had been showing, I think this one will too (by this I mean a few days earlier than my prediction last week for 10th - 13th, NOT earlier than the 7 - 8th). Not that there isn't still a bigger storm showing up then (10-13), but everything is pushed well north as a big wave in the Pac jet races in. I guess if we are still in a Nina with N. stream/ faster flow dominating this makes sense. Looks like my 10th-13th period may now be one for thunderstorm folks! This snow potential looks interesting to me in that CMC, GFS, and Euro show northern energy elongating as it races out from the great lakes towards maritime Canada and suppressing the flow. Suppression is probably a great thing in April. I feel like you'd want a super dynamic, wound up system to give you snow in April, but I guess it's possible with other means. The energy with this is much more apparent to me at 300 mb which seems odd too. Normally you'd see a vort at 500 mb, but it's barely visible there. Looking through EPS members, a majority favor a more northern solution, but quite a few like a favorable track for us and one even suppresses the whole thing all the way to coastal SC.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice website that has some limited, but nice ECMWF data for the N. Hemisphere. I think it is all past data, but still useful http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really nice satellite image of the foggy valley bottoms in East TN this morning on GOES 16. Particularly interesting to me is the fog that runs up into the Frozen Head area, an area I hadn't thought of as a river valley, but sure enough the New River runs up into it.
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