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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX goes with an Special Weater Statement and is pretty bullish for just the Wednesday Night - Thursday system for areas above 2500 ft: ...Wintry Conditions Expected across the far east Tennessee Mountains and Mountains of southwest Virginia for late Wednesday through Thursday Morning... Rain will develop Wednesday as a frontal boundary moves across the region. The periods of rain will change over to snow late Wednesday with snow showers likely through Thursday morning, especially across the higher elevations. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected at or above 2500 feet across the far east Tennessee Mountains and Mountains of southwest Virginia. Locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches are possible in the highest peaks of the Smoky Mountains. Travel may become difficult due to snow covered roads and reduced visibility. If you must travel, use caution while driving across higher elevations roads. Across the Plateau, and lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, light snow accumulations are possible, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. I do wonder sometimes if the plateau is included in this or just Smokies/ Roan, etc...
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest NAM changes Blunderstorm over to snow by nightfall tomorrow:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anyone want to take a stab at deciphering this guy?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS still likes the little clippery thingy Friday into Saturday:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro OP looks pretty good for y'all in terms of its pattern. As is my custom, here is some random map that I don't quite understand, but since I'm still paying these people for access to their stuff, might as well use it for something.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually looked fairly interesting with the energy dropping in toward the end of its run:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fair enough, I started the NAO bit this AM, so will get back on track with the 12z UKMET run that looks interesting for KY and parts of W TN:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think it is off topic at all @Save the itchy algae!. Good questions and a fair point. I think it definitely is, as raindancewx states and you suggest, "relative" given the major recent losses in sea ice up there. I had actually not looked at it and just from hearing what people had been saying, assumed the ++++AO and +++EPO had to rebuild quite a bit. However, sho nuff, you're right. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ Since it was in banter and raindancewx didn't cite sources, it could be that this article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3618-9#Sec15 was the one he was using for the claim (conclusions from that study): The spatial pattern of those CI persistent anomalies that lead the NAO by 1 year is quasi-annular about the Arctic-high latitudes coast, extending over the West Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador coast and the North-East Okhotsk sea (with positive anomalies leading the NAO positive phase). The maximal phase of this co-variability is triggered when a high pressure anomaly develops 1 year before the NAO+ (low pressure for NAO-) over the Central Arctic extending over North Greenland-Canadian Archipelago-Baffin Bay with centres also over the Laptev Sea and North Barents Sea. This “Arctic bridge” appears as a pre-conditioning feature of the maximal NAO phase, being systematic under transient climates. Its role is linked to cold advection over both: the North-Western Atlantic and North-Western Pacific with evaporative ocean cooling, low pressure formation and persistent latent heat advection over the mid-latitudes land. So a persistent, annular, negative meridional thermal gradient is achieved about the Arctic coast, leading positive vorticity over Central Arctic the following year (when leading NAO+). A mode of CI variability captures this pattern and is leading the NAO index by 1 year, having similar spectral properties to the NAO index. The highest leading correlation of this mode is obtained over ([35°N–90°N]), domain that couples the Arctic with the high-latitudes. Another thing to consider is that the NAO is measured at sea level, not higher up where we usually want it for blocking and I'm guessing most researchers, even if they like snow like us, have to go by how the measurement is taken to get their results published. While he may be on shakier ground concerning the sea ice, there has also been talk of the lag after the solar minimum producing an NAO, so I thought I'd look at that too. Probably the most famous once of these is 2009 - 10: and here is the solar plot: That hypothesis also checks out in 1998 or so: It gets less evident in the late 80s though: As you go further back there is a correlation again, but that was also with an favorable AMO, so that could have had a say too.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hot off the raindancewx press, found it the NE panic room: "Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter."
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro continues to advertise some chances after day 5: Lots of moving pieces, but as John pointed out, BL temps look to be a concern. EPS still likes that idea to. Will be interesting to see how the NAM and other meso-models handle these systems. They look much more consolidated which may give the Euro an edge this time, but fiesty, shorter wavelengths may spice things up a bit.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS likes some of those windows too, so the OP is def. not on an island: Also thought I'd check on the strat this PM since I hadn't in a bit. Still looks like a hurricane:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro throwing out an interesting pattern from day 5 on:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Random thought this AM. What if the SPV holds on so long this year that when it finally breaks down, it disrupts the bad NAO cycle we've been in for so long?
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I rolled the dice and started a thread.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good news is we will at least start to see reality on radar this time tomorrow.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    3km NAM, while not a throat punch to the northern plateau, is at least a wicked jab.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro. Finally figured out how to make these on my phone: https://giphy.com/gifs/VeZ269fobmDUjSeJQL
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the radar loop from the storm(s) I think y'all are talking about.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    15z RAP FWIW:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hvward had a good post earlier this AM in the NC Mountains/ foothills thread about how the NAM might be handling the set up better because it was a "gridded" model, as oppose to the Euro/ UK which are "spherical". Apparently this allows the NAM to do better with small, punchy vorts moving in quickly one after another. 12z Euro:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like it will be better than 0z, but maybe not quite as good as 6z. Splitting hairs though.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I didn’t think it could get more NAMtastic but it will on this run at least. On my phone so can’t post maps.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 6z Euro for y'all too:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro still drier than the NAM, but hands down the best it has looked for the I-40 corridor in TN
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think I've looked at the interaction between the two pieces of energy over CA and the Rockies til I'm crosseyed. Main piece is still the one off shore. I think it's basically go time now. Have to wait and see exactly how precip breaks out and how all that interaction plays out across the Rockies. NAM just keeps the energy together more, despite the squish coming in from the north. RGEM just isn't quite out that far yet on TT, but looks like it could go either way If it was just up to how well the energy survives crossing the Rockies, I might be more inclined to side with the NAM, since sometimes these pieces are more energetic, but the Euro really, really wants to suppress with the N piece: but I don't know that it would take much for something more NAM like to happen. CMC likes Tellico's idea above, it almost turns the corner.
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