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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow, it's close to being all snow just north of me on the plateau. Maybe even for me.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    AFD is up from MRX
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I feel like it has done well in modeling the boundary layer issues I've had with storms here vs other modeling. That said, I can't remember how far the lead time was for it nailing those,. It's still pretty far out in HRRR land right now.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    One more jump or two and the NAM will look a lot like everything else.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM 3km has been a little steadier, but IMO it also made a jump south at 18z :
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    850 wind trend past 6 runs too: There' certainly still rug pull potential for sure, but that trend, if not our friend, is at least friendlier.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z NAM is still the warmest model and most aggressive with the warm nose, but let's also consider the trend it has over the past 6 runs:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro Control and ensemble members for le thump:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still interested to see what happens with the trailing bits of energy as the system(s) evolve over the next couple of days:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    evolution of the Euro
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro maintains its thumpage:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah this is the first time I've had access to soundings from some of these models and the differences between what the precip type says, what the precip type shows on the model output, and what the sounding looks like seem a little wonky.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look how close the above sounding is to an all snow sounding, from over my head:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's how the RAP sees the precip types: Here's what it sees as the sounding around Chatt at 2 AM Thursday: It says rain, but shows mix and it is sooooo close with that forcing to being all snow.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wish Jack Sillin was doing what he did for that storm a few days ago, where he used RAOB data to analyze model output. That was helpful. Would be nice to see how what's left of the TPV is acting like a pseudo 50/50 low and causing confluence over NE, vs how models are seeing it. NAM seems to be playing catch up with that feature, but being the warmest model, it could still be right with eventual evolution, even if how it sees us getting there is wrong, lol.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z para GFS: 12z National Blend of Models to offset the above:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think MrWolf posted it in the 2/17 - 18 storm thread.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the lee side convergence west of the Frozen Head mts:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually here's a good one for just the RMM diagrams: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CPC_MJOinformation.pdf
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Here are a couple good sources, @PowellVolz
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think we've just had so much low level moisture hanging around the past few days, that the true arctic air, now that it is being allowed to sweep in after yesterdays storm, is wringing it out.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It does blast the warmth in after that though. Yet the sounding over IMBY looks kinda snowy, even though it says sleet. Full saturation in the DGZ, very shallow warm nose that all that forcing and rates might mitigate. At least a sleet/snow mix I would say on this NAM run, anyway: circled area is the sounding:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM coming in south again (last 4 runs):
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually looking at Ventrice's plot's earlier. The filtered 6 variable one looks nice:
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