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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is also N/W:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the RGEM has decided it doesn't like Sullivan county, but favors Washington and Carter counties: Meanwhile the 12km NAM seems to have decided to just do its own thing and keeps the snow going for most of its run from Nashville east: You be you NAM: 3km NAM has some nice bands: Here is the RAP, for fun, since we are entering its long range now: It will be interesting to see what synoptic evolution the WRF-ARW core shows when it gets in range later this evening. That core has been spitting out some big solutions on the SREFs
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF is looking north and a little more negative with the energy. Now, will the NAM follow?? Last 5 SREF vorticity panels for 12z Jan 8:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh yeah, looks like the 18z Euro had some of whatever the RGEM had this AM:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    As always, the winter panels are late, but based on 3 hour precip and 850 temps, suspect the 18z Euro will be kind to NE TN
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM is still kinda hopeful, wrt precip making it north, but warmer.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    We could hug the ARW cores of the SREF if we were desperate (for TRI):
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Soundings showing quite a bit of dry air above and below 700mb:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It goes neutral over the MS River, you'd think it would get more precip. toward middle TN: It could see something cutting off RH in the mid levels. Sure enough (sorry as I was typing this I though, ehhh, might as well look) The energy over Iowa pulls in some dry air. If that were to drop further south and interact with the southern energy more, I would think it would better for more areas in TN.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    If that were to be how it worked out, would expect some deep Gulf moisture getting thrown back towards the mountains from SWVA NEward.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has a nice phase for plateau east, but precip maps look skimpy:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I rolled the dice. No fancy names from me this time. Felt wrong for this one for some reason.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie looking elevation dependent:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snowfall looks elevation dependent on it:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Usually the COD site is the last to have model data, but it is whipping TT and Pivotal with the CMC today:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC still has moisture, but also has warmed some since its 0z run. Strangely seems further south with the 850 low than 0z. Maybe some of the cooling it saw at 0z was dynamically driven?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 12z RGEM will be pretty similar to 6z. drills Kingsport and Hawkins county. Bays Mountain leeside (in this case NW of the mountain, to the lee of the SE flow) inverted trough upslope! Also of note, looks like this will be overnight for most eastern areas.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks that one was win for Chattanooga!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like parts of TN just got a good old NAMing. Can’t post pics right now.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It takes so long for the precip. type panels to load on weathermodels, but here are the 6z Euro snow totals, compared to 0z 6z: 0z:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro was warmer with 850 temps and a bit north with the 500 mb ULL. I don't have winter panels yet, but probably not going to be as nice a solution. But yeah, like you said, hopefully we're in nowcast time with where the ULLs (500 and 850 mb levels) track. We are now also in.... wait for it.... wait for it..... the time of that tumultuous lover.... SREF
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM tracks the 850 low right over the TN/NC border, so there is a nice stripe of snow just to the NW of that. NAM keeps that feature further south, so everything stays a little further south. I would think if the 850 low approached the mountains on the TN side, it would want to run up through the valley, since some of the mts are above 850mb. Euro kind of splits the diff. and pinballs the 850 low off the Nantahalas and into the SC midlands. Also, that that inverted trough Math/Met mentioned above, looks like it is on the RGEM too. Seems like it's been forever since I've heard about one of those mentioned for our area enhancing snowfall.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    It kind of looks like the Euro and the RGEM, but more suppressed. Based what I saw at it's precip presentation (not had any time to dig deeper this AM yet) it seems possible.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM fans are probably going to like the 6z RGEM (especially Sullivan County): still snowing up that way at the end.
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