purduewx80

lol no kidding

NHC still going with a 30% chance of subtropical development. Looks like a warm seclusion on a lot of the guidance. Name possible? yes. Likely? no.

The upper low offshore phases w/ the tail end of the trof approaching us now; whole thing is cut off and the warm sector gets wrapped around its north side. So it does make some sense with the big block (of sorts) in eastern Canada. NHC has a 30% chance for subtropical development w/ this system on the 5-day outlook.

12Z Euro is an absolute drencher Tues night - Friday, with winds over 50 MPH for much of LI Thu-Fri. This run is showing 2-4" for the city and 7-10"+ for parts of SE New England.

95 to 57 and +DZ is definitely one of the weirder 24h weather sequences I've personally witnessed. Check out the supercells in PA right now.

Might actually see temps jump up to near 70 for a good chunk of LI late tomorrow evening or around midnight, depending on the track of the redeveloping low. Could be some cheap overnight highs for both Thu and Fri as a result.

Mon-Tues almost looking like a PRE event on the 12Z ECMWF. It develops that mess south of Bermuda into some sort of low that feeds into the slowly-passing front. Certainly looks like wetter times are ahead.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDCA&num=72&banner=NONE&hfmetars=1 just change the 4-letter identifier for other sites

LGA has tied their Oct all-time high of 93 so far, JFK up to 92 for a new October record. Feels like July to me.

97 showing up on the latest 5 min observation - good enough for a new October high temp record. 96 ties the previous.

EWR up to 93F now, tying their previous all-time October record. NYC and LGA at 89 now, 88 for JFK at 1pm.

SPC upgraded to a marginal risk in the area this afternoon. Coverage may be isolated, but with the strong heating and ample moisture along the front, should be a few gusty storms around early this evening.

right? ring-of-fire pattern out in the midwest is also more typical of july. high clouds probably won't be much of an inhibitor today. short-term guidance brings temps of 90-93 to the entire city.

I guess the only thing stopping it would be debris cirrus from whatever complex survives out of the Midwest/Lakes tonight.

October all-time records: JFK: 90 on 10/8/2007 LGA and EWR: 93 on 10/5/1941 NYC: 94 on 10/5/1941 ISP: 88 on 10/8/2007

agreed. warm spots may end up being JFK, adjacent parts of the south shore and the jersey shore. think we'll have some spotty thunderstorms with the late afternoon front, too.

and cleveland, and louisville, and indy, and lexington, and nashville, and birmingham...

maybe if you say it a few more times, you'll wishcast an 89 at EWR, LGA, NYC....

Not much correlation between a -NAO during the warmer months extending into winter. We'd want to see that blocking continue to show up in October and especially November to have some hope.

if we don't take care of the overpopulation problem, the planet sure will.

pretty incredible heat wave showing up on 12Z guidance, but there are timing differences between the op runs and their ensembles. the spread is anywhere from sept 29 thru oct 4, with peak temps in the mid-90s suggested at the usual hot spots. how far east and north the heat makes it will depend on the surface high being centered to the south of one's location, allowing for some form of westerly flow. as we've seen recently, high heights do not translate to heat if easterly flow prevails. the apparent lack of rain between then and now, already dry soils and surface temps exceeding guidance the past few days suggest the potential is there for historic heat across a large portion of the mid-atlantic and perhaps parts of the northeast near the beginning of the new month. overwhelming ensemble and model support leads to higher than normal confidence for a hot outcome at this range. still, plenty could change between now and then.

if any nearby sensor can do it in the expected pattern, it'll be EWR.

disagree. if the ensembles are onto the right idea, we'll be flirting with near-record heat some of those days. obviously the core of the anomalous heat will be in the ohio valley, midwest to the southern mid-atlantic. temps well into the 80s would be on par with july normals.

A little surprised the Gulf disturbance doesn't have higher probs. At the least this is going to be a flooding concern in the Houston area as the developing low gets trapped under the ridge for 2-3 days.