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Everything posted by Albedoman
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2
Albedoman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
this idiot needs to retire. He gives pro-meteorologists a bad name. He could not predict himself out of a wet paper bag. He must have gotten his college degree from Timbuktu -
Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2
Albedoman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I have been saying this potential in my blog for a week now- St Patty's day time frame- Miller A/B hybrid potential exists and cannot be discounted as we undergo a major shift in the MJO and zonal flow pattern across the eastern US. I call this the rubber band effect from next weeks warm-up. Its coming a like a thief in the night. Have seen this pattern change many times in March- always brings a potential good snow storm. The GFS models the last two days are picking this up this unique pattern change and hinting at better snow chances. While I am not claiming another 1958 storm, the pattern is somewhat similiar in the latestl GFS runs. https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/3/15/120-pm-the-great-blizzard-of-march-18-21-1958one-of-the-worst-snowstorms-ever-in-pennsylvaniasome-similarities-with-next-weeks-expected-pattern -
I have been saying this since last week in my blog. March 17-20 big pattern flip. MJO major change along with a MIller A/B potential. Nice accumulating snow event after seeing 65+ degree weather a few days before this period. After that a brief cold period then hopefully spring is here to stay. I also see a great potential for a severe weather event if the warm temps hold out..
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bring it on. I need the 2 inches of snow to help clean off all the salt brine spray on my car from the melting snow on the road. Still have over 10 in on the ground. These glaciers are not even calving right now as they are so harden by the the melt and refreeze with repeated cold nights. After tonight's event, if a 6-8 in snow event at LVI should occur sometime in March, it will probably break the all time record for snowfall at LVI.
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bring on the 1-2 inch snow on Sat morning to cover the grass again LMAO
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still not as bad as the infamous Valentines Massacre sleet/snow storm of 2007 that caused Gov Rendell to go bye bye.That storm will live in infamy for me and for those who use I-78 and I-81. I never shoveled almost 10 inches of solid sleet before that storm. I was tired as hell. The temps never got higher than 19 degrees that evening and even fell more. PADOT decided to rely on salt and never kept the blades down on the road and did not have enough trucks out plowing and was quickly overwhelmed by the sleet packing down by the trucks. The ice accumulation on the road surface was unbelievable near the Krumsville exit.. Traffic just stopped and people were left in their vehicles for over 24 hours.
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60.2 inches of snow for the year in Macungie PA. LV has over 56 in. Nearly 20 in of snow depth still
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Lat 40.53358 Long -75.59717
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OBS and nowcast 10A-5P both Mon and Tue 2/22-23
Albedoman replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
5 inches in Macungie PA today. Snow squalls for tomorrow and maybe a refresher on Saturday? -
I told you guys this would be a snow surprise event and overcoming the sun angle issues would be no problem. Waiting for the half dollar to pancake size flakes to start falling. Too bad this storm is short in duration. Its like winter kicking us in the nads one more time before exiting. I am more concerned about the model chaos this weekend into next week as the pattern changes
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nice to see post in this region Don.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2
Albedoman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Mt holly here in the LV just upped the totals to 7 in, expanded the WWA to include Montgomery and Bucks Counties and stressed 2 " an hour rates with great omega growth. -
Mt Holly just upped the the possible accumulation totals to 7 inches in the LV. They are worried about the convective banding and now saying 2" an hour rates are possible. WWA expanded into Montgomery and Bucks Counties as well. Walter Drag and I have been discussing throughout the week this setup as a possible nice surprise.
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3-5 in the LV with pancake size flakes expected Under a WWA. If it does snow 5 inches, will hit 60 in for the year at my house
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Walt 3-5 in snow event for the LV. WWA issued for the snow event on Monday here. Model amounts have ticking up the last few days. Lots of convection- expect to see pancake size flakes for a few hours. The storm next week has me concerned- a few more ticks east and another significant winter event in the making.
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On cue --WWA issued for the LV with 2-4 in south of #78 3-5 in north of #78. If it snows 5 inches in Macungie with lollipops of 6 in on the hills, we will have almost a two foot snow pack again. Bring it on before the meltdown later in the week which our snow pack to to a 6-12 in before the big storm event next week. The 30-50 foot snow piles in the shopping center parking lots will not be gone until after April fools day
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I needed a good laugh from accuwrong
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2-4 for the LV with lollipops of 6 in. This storm has the potential to be labeled as an over performer for many if the convective portion gets going. Do not underestimate the snowfall rates which can easily overcome any sun angle crap even on treated roads. A nice cover for the dirty snow along the roads right now and 4 inches will nearly give me over 60 in for the year in Macungie
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Allentown reached 50.0" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2014-15 when 50.1" was measured. With over 52.0" snow to date, Allentown has seen the most snowfall since winter 2013-14 when 68.1" snow fell. I have recorded 58 inches for the Macungie area
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2
Albedoman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
looks like my backyard in macungie -
when patterns change, watch for deepening of coastal lows and major volatility in long range models accuracy. I believe after the lp locations will change after every 3 runs because of the lack data ingested in the models far worse in pattern changes. 500 mile movements of lps are not uncommon.
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I agree, the convective nature is unusual. A definite now cast event unfolding.
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add 2-4 of snow for Monday for the LV . This could be a surprise over performer too according to NAM runs too. I see a WWA advisories issued by Sunday night
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Walt, the 2-4 in looks good on the latest NAM runs this morning for ABE for Monday. It may require a WWA
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mjo going back to phase 8 oh no bigger storms on track like 93 March snow maybe?