Albedoman

so far so good with my first call 24 hours later. Many models are tuning in to this scenario for the LV. My totals seem a little high but I guess that is what my second call will iron out tomorrow night. The third and final call will be Sat night Nam Run. Additional issues I see popping up now in the models: 1. More sleet at the mid levels are becoming an issue in all of the models. 2. The dry slot is still near or over the LV affecting snow totals before the changeover to sleet/frizzle. The front end thump maybe just a speed bump if the dry slot kicks our ass.. 3. If the wrap around snow does not come to fruition as the low races to the north because of the dry slot, then blowing snow will be curtailed as the sleet and frizzle put the "icing on the cake" to prevent blowing and drifting. Other than thundersnow, I really want to see howling blowing snow that causes drifting as it is a rarity in these parts from this event 4. lastly this inland runner could still go east by 50 miles or so by tomorrow night bringing a lot of happy faces to the I-95 people. Just have to model watch, especially the SREF and NAM runs as they are just outside their model trustworthiness right now. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ My second call this evening for this storm in the LV is by lowering my expectations of total snowfall to 4-6 inches under a winter weather advisory (Cannot meet the 6 inch winter storm warning criteria) then a changeover to one inch or more of sleet then to freezing rain .2 and then plain rain .4. Plain and simple gamut of wintry crap for sure for sunday night All of my previous concerns are still in play from my first call will be considered for incorporation of my final call tomorrow evening. The high winds from the expansive wind field with the double barrell low is concerning to me right now as that is a rarity in our area as well as in delay in the "kicker short wave from the Canada arriving late to the party which then may force the lp located off the SNJ coast to slowly become the primary with increased snowfall accumulations in the wrap around snowfall. Wind gusts over 65 mph will force the NWS in issuing a high wind warning in our region and occasionally near whiteout conditions in the wrap around snowfall is a distinct possibility. I simply call this the "Sandy" of the 2022 with the many power outages and tree felling throughout NJ especially as the soils will be super saturated from the quick thaw and heavy rain.

WTH. Does this guy know the definition of a blizzard? He needs to stop posting.

well this NAM model run says it all for our snow chances in the video clip. No way if this keeps up

so far so good with my first call 24 hours later. Many models are tuning in to this scenario for the LV. My totals seem a little high but I guess that is what my second call will iron out tomorrow night. The third and final call will be Sat night Nam Run. Additional issues I see popping up now in the models: 1. More sleet at the mid levels are becoming an issue in all of the models. 2. The dry slot is still near or over the LV affecting snow totals before the changeover to sleet/frizzle. The front end thump maybe just a speed bump if the dry slot kicks our ass.. 3. If the wrap around snow does not come to fruition as the low races to the north because of the dry slot, then blowing snow will be curtailed as the sleet and frizzle put the "icing on the cake" to prevent blowing and drifting. Other than thundersnow, I really want to see howling blowing snow that causes drifting as it is a rarity in these parts from this event 4. lastly this inland runner could still go east by 50 miles or so by tomorrow night bringing a lot of happy faces to the I-95 people. Just have to model watch, especially the SREF and NAM runs as they are just outside their model trustworthiness right now.

yep I agree . Getting the hoses on and off the truck will be a hell of job too.

Have a question throw it my direction, glad to help

my first call 8-12 in for LV, thunder snow/ sleet maybe mixed in with some frizzle on top as we get dry slotted with wrap around snow of 1-2 in Monday afternoon. Then the 30-40 winds kick in with blowing and drifting roads shut in the open rural areas. Then the temps fall bigtime . Then come the parade of alberta clippers afterwards.

choose files...

by the way,last Feb snows, I was having this problem for my squirrel feeder/bird feeder on my deck. The bar seats for the squirrels to eat at was over taken by the biggest dam squirrel I have ever seen. LMAO

I hate to really say it, but I am already looking forward a damn good lighting cracking t storm in late April. This weather pattern we are in is strictly designed only for killing stink bugs, box elder bugs, mosquitoes and maybe some of those pesky spotted lantern flies with the brutal tundra cold. Honestly the only ones that like this crappy weather pattern are the squirrels and birds like the pictured hawk below who was staring at me from my feeder a few days ago right outside my window as they can actually still feed off the ground.

nope just too many lake cutters in an ideal cold pattern that has now set up. I say many us in this forum who love snowstorms are in an upheaval as MIller A's have virtually disappeared after a forming for a few models runs on the long range models. Its been going on for a few days now. All of the models have not been consistent amongst each other as well. The La Nina pattern has basically shut down LP(low pressure) production in the gulf states and the the progressive pattern is racing LP's across the country. With constant LP's racing across the northern tier of the US, Lake cutter storms and other moisture starve storm as are hitting the east coast every 3-4 days. The production of even Alberta clippers has been shut down as they are moisture starvedand steered into Canada. By the time the LP's hit the east coast, the formation of a MIller B type storms is non-existent. I hate to say it but we need on big honking deep pressure storm to form in the New Orleans area and race toward the Delmarva area to break this shitty pattern, even if it was all rain or better yet have the SE ridge break down for over a week. Good luck with that. Every storm we get appears to be thread the needle type of storm too. That can get very frustrating. Its like playing the game of hearts and getting the queen of spades in every hand. The Debbie down syndrome is in full bloom.

most of the freezing rain fell before 2pm . Had about .20 of precip. Not much overperformance luckily. The temps finally rose above freezing at 1pm. The temps never recovered above 34 degrees and actually are near freezing again. Hopefully the streets dry out before it freezes. They salted the crap out the main roads up here. Expect a brief snow squall/shower that could whiten the ground by tomorrow evening as the arctic front comes whizzing by to drop the temps into single digits for Tuesday morning. waiting for big one by the 20th.

forecast still on target

Holy moly . I would never challenge a pro like Mike Gorse unless you sat in his seat for 20+ years at NOAA especially publically on this site. Sir, you have go a lot to learn if you ever want to have people listen and agree with your weather forecast ability. Its called respect. I have just one simple quote for you on what others think of you now: You are like a cloud. When you disappear it’s a beautiful day.

I wish you were right but so many do click. Look at all of the BS ads they sell in the paper. If I said you coudl make a 30 dollars an hour clicking on my website, they would do or if MC offered some other gimmick. Its a real shame.

LOL, we will see on Sunday morning. A couple good shots of Honey Jack sat night should get me going on this potential. I love utilizing weather history in seeing how computer weather model forecasts unfold. I may not be right every time, but who is? Its a challenge and that is what I enjoy. This enjoyment comes from living throughout the country in my 63 years on this earth. I have seen every weather phenomena up close and personal from Cat 3-4 hurricanes in Mississippi , the formation and experience of being in midwest and local Derechoes. EF4 tornadoes in Arkansas/Tn, true blizzards of 4-6 ft of snow in the Sierra, mudslides in S CA , historical flooding throughout the country especially in Memphis and the MS river, dense fog so thick you cannot see the end of your car while driving in Los Angeles, lightning storms and sand storms in the Mohave desert, ice storms of ice almost an inch thick in Illinois, extreme heat from 126 in Death Valley to extreme cold -32 in Wisconsin and hail the size of a softball crashing though my patio cover in Memphis. I have gone through every major storm since 1987 here in the LV. I have on video the 93 superstorm and the 96 storms here in PA The only weather related features I really have not experienced is an avalanche. Prefer not to experience it. I have experienced three earthquakes in LA and Memphis and have actual ash from Mt St Helens as my uncle lived through the actual eruption as he actually lived about 15 miles from the mountain In vancouver/Battle Ground wa. . I went to his house right after the volcano erupted, the destruction was nothing like I have ever seen in my lifetime so far. I have seen and experienced a lifetime of natural phenomena most people have only dreamed of.

the problem is that even when the sun comes out tomorrow, Sat highs will not even get above freezing thus curtailing any melting on untreated surfaces. Tonight , everything will freeze solid- slush and all with lows near the single digits in some areas in the LV in the deepest valleys. The sun can only melt so much on Sat. That sets up perfect conditions for Saturday night. The skies will remain clear until about midnight. The temps will fall like a rock before things cloud up and will be in the upper teens and low 20's when the precip starts to fall -- first as a period of sleet/maybe snow pellets mixed in, then freezing rain throughout Sunday morning after sunrise. It will take almost all day for the cold air to get scoured out of the LV. The the arctic front comes through late Sunday night changing the little bit of warm rain back over to light snow with a flash freeze for Monday morning. Then the snow squalls reach us on Monday afternoon , especially in the northern parts of the LV. I have experienced this scenario a dozen times during my 35+ years here in the LV.

Gentlemen, I think Sundays morning freezing rain/sleet event will be an over performer. Its been a long time since we have had a nice ice storm and this storm as all the earmrkings of more than .25 in of ice accretion in some areas. I would expect Mt Holly to issue WWA by tomorrow afternoon for Sunday morning but I would not be surprised at all if it is upgraded to a winter storm warning for freezing rain for some areas. The CAD is really strong IMHO and is typical in this type of weather pattern. The freezing temps will have a very difficult time getting scoured out of the valleys, especially with the fresh snowpack. Weather history is telling me this, not some floozy model

I am more concerned that what happened back in 96 really still has not changed for the Morning Call as they are dismal at best at any weather forecasting- always late and never enough important info as it relates to actual storm progression. They realized this several years go as readers have left in droves and MC has gone to Empire forecasting for their weather forecasting needs. What ever happened to trusting Mt Holly and the NWS? If I was running the show at MC, I would have direct links to the Mt Holly site from the MC site and to all of my subscribers and encourage these subscribers to use those links in order to have constant weather warning updates. I would make my reporters read and request help from the pro's at Mt Holly to understand the weather discussion, especially for each posted storm synopsis . Mt Holly does an excellent job of this. This going to a private service is hogwash for MC as they are providing ad space for the private consultants for terms of service to use their name recognition to appear they know what the hell they are doing better than the NWS. Mike Gorse you are spot on with your opinions. Thanks

wow can the LV score on this?

one inch on the ground already and snowing moderately to heavy at times. There goes our chance of having the longest period for a measurable snow record out the door in the LV Well better luck next time. I guess reverse psychology does work. LOL

snowing moderately to heavy here in the Lehigh Valley an inch on the ground now

perfectly good explanation, he just missed his dose of prozac last night.

what winter wonderland are you dreaming of right now? Winter has not even started yet in the LV? I have bird seed sprouting under my feeders right now with bulbs pushing up and my pussy willow has white blooms on it. I have a book to read right now in this pattern. Would you like to join me in reading this particular book? LMAO