Albedoman

I lived and experienced driving through 1994, one ice/small snow storm event after another. Salt was in short supply. When 2-3 inches of sleet and freezing rain gets packed down on the untreated roads, its a losing battle , especially when it snows and temps drop into the teens for highs. The sun cannot melt the packed down icy surface. My main concern for this event is that a flash turnover from rain to freezing rain will occur for several hours then going over to heavy sleet. Valentines 2007 was a nightmare that I will never forget . I live a few miles from 78, on Rt 100. I got the hell off that road that afternoon and the sleet was literally glued to every surface imaginable. The PADOT policy of waiting until you get 2-3 inches of snow to drop the blade DOES NOT WORK with sleet. You must get that crap off the road and salt the living hell out of it to make it to a dough paste out of the accumulated sleet on the surface. Again I will stay with my thoughts above in bold. The current 18Z runs of the NAM are usually warmer at 60-84 and I expect they will become colder by tomorrow 12Z runs in this storm event. The Euro is trying to adjust and the GFS is still in the ball game with frontal positioning. Its basically all depending on HP strength and how quick and strong the LP develops in the lower Ohio Valley. We will have a good picture by Wednesday 0z runs.

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

I posted this yesterday in the philly forum FWIW. I see no changes to my initial thoughts after the 12Z runs for the LV/Berks area. I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too. Speaking of snow drought- can you see the donut hole for us in this map? truly amazing.

currently the ground is frozen 2-3 feet right now. There is less than 3 inches of snow on most surfaces except where piled from the plows. Any snow melt until Thursday when the precip arrives will be done by sublimation, not by precipitation. The snow will simply be transferred into a gas and be gone. For the areas that did get heavier snow, the infamous "fog eater process" will set up and a significant reduction of the snowpack will significant before the heavier precip arrives. I expect dense fog advisories out for those specific areas later in the week as the warm advects over the existing snow pack. For us in the LV and Berks area, we have no little snow pack to melt off even if rains over an inch. Most of snowpack will simply be already melted or evaporated before Thursday in the sunshine and because the warm advected air is still too dry. Evaporative melting of the snow is extremely high right now, especially for the snow crystals that we got in the last storm. You would think that just because the ground is bare by Thursday, that any rain fall will be able to soak into the ground . Your synopsis would be absolutely incorrect. The ground remains frozen below the first few inches of the soil horizon and any liquid runoff will run directly into the creeks/stormwater systems. The .5 to 1 inch of precip will be composed of road salt laden runoff going into the streams only to raise them back to near normal levels as the base flows have been significantly down since December. The first few inches of the soil may thaw, but that's it. Then we repeat the frozen cycle all over again on Friday and the rest of the week as temps drop back into the single digits. You want proof? here is the drought page for your purview. Even though it is a minor drought condition , La Nina weather patterns that are waning and diminishing in our area historically do not bode well for sufficient groundwater recharge in the spring months https://www.drought.gov/location/18062

Lehigh Valley to Harrisburg Donut Hole central. Thats why I am worried about a drought

anafront conditions bigtime. Flooding rain hell no. Mt Holly needs to stop talking about flooding as the GOM is not open for business. Snowmelt- what a joke 8 in of snow .50 liquid equivalent in the snow pack. For me 3 in of snow .20 or less. That will not lead to flooding. Ice jams, maybe in upper Delaware and Susquehanna? Thats the only flood threat. I see the precip changing to freezing rain and sleet and then a few inches of snow on top after .25 in of rain. Not a drought buster as the soils remain deeply frozen, especially after the next few nights.

the orographic lifting is taking over right now. The atmosphere is playing the sponge card right now squeezing every bit of available moisture out the atmospheric profiles. The flake size is much bigger just like we were in the sierras with big fluffy flakes rather then dendritic crystals we had all night. However, not worried- an inch or so more and the dry air battle will be over as it will push over the Blue and eventually South mountains and end quickly by noon. The temps should drop to near zero tonight. Mt Holly should revise the overnight lows as many temps are near in the low teens even in the LV and single digits over Hazleton area. With the fresh snow cover and the winds finally dying down by morning, I see below zero temps for many areas.

Here it is friday and my Wednesday forecast is still on track-- Nothing new. First call is usually the best call. Heavier bands can still screw up my forecast but this now becomes a now cast event after 6pm ================================================================================================================================= well, it's Wednesday evening,and the storm on the short range models is an out to sea storm, just like I called it. Very little impact to our area with the major accumulating snow east of the NJ turnpike. I see us getting between 3-5 inches at the very most for the entire storm event unless a major change comes to the models. in the next 24- hours which is still a possibility that I will not rule out. Most of the snow will fall Sat morning. As the arctic front comes though on Friday, light snow will break out in the morning to lunch time. It will be snowing lightly all afternoon and into Friday night. 1-2 inches is possible by midnight. if the roads are treated -no problem. Winter storm watches will most likely go out for counties to the south and especially east of the LV by tomorrow afternoon. For us- a wait and see situation as we are very borderline right now. I just wish we we could have a plowable snow event of 4-6 inches but even that appears unlikely right now.

I agree with your post but not the criteria. After this snow event Mt Holly really needs to be initiating a study to change the criteria for issuing warning and watches for the entire LV ( including Berks County) and northern Bucks and Montgomery counties. Nearly 2 million people now live in this area alone. Setting arbitrary warning criteria should be based on population and its density. This area has experienced the fastest and most growth in PA in the past five years. That in itself warrants the change not to mention placing the LV as most transportation dependent industry in the entire North east US by making the LV the logistics capital for the entire NE based on warehouse/distribution centers. Lastly, the physical geography with incorporating the actual location of the fall line should signify a change but that topic is for another day. https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/pennsylvania/admin

Ironic, they rely heavily on the Euro models in the discussion but fail to warn almost a million people who live "on the fringe". The greater Lehigh Valley metro area has a larger population than most areas in the midwest. Makes no sense. The Lehigh Valley has the most dangerously traveled road in PA - I-78/RT 22/ RT 309 corridor. Its already snowing and Mt Holly should at least be precautionary and not reactionary as there are way too many residents/drivers who rely on an accurate warning system. The Lehigh Valley metro is not hicksville rural areas anymore and they need to be more precautionary, thats all. The "I told you so syndrome" is about to come out of the closet again. Sorry for my rant but 25+ years of seeing this same scenario unfolding is frustrating.

I am sorry but MT Holly has blown this one. Not even issuing winter weather advisory for a metro area of almost 1 million people now. It is just plain wrong when several models are indicating snow accumulation approaching 4-6 inches for southern Lehigh County. They have done this before by issuing winter storm warning too late in the ballgame, I would have put up a winter storm watch and a winter weather advisory at the minimum. Many people in Berks, Lehigh and County are going to be upset and tons of accidents as a result. Just saying history repeating itself.

yep, I agree this year. Allentown is having to trouble just cracking 6 inches

I agree the 12Z runs tomorrow will be the final nail in the coffin. Its been a longtime to wait this close to the actual storm event to even have any confidence. Usually the Nam/Euro combo works well but they are even jumping around.

My historical analogy of this storm in the 25+ years of doing this is the banding of the tucked in low will be the driver of jackpots and busts in our forecast area. So many times I have seen these coastal lows start to retrograde in late short range models around the benchmark and pop off some serious banding issues as the low closes off early due to more convection. This storm is modeling to be a very similar situation to past storms that I have seen. The western fringes areas of this snow may do very well if banding holds as reverse orographic lifting takes place over the South and Blue Mts. Montgomery/Bucks County into Lehigh and Northampton may overperform because of this situation. I would not be surprised that winter storm warnings are extended up into these counties tomorrow if the short range models continue to indicate retrograding of the LP.

keep on drinking ---nada for you in Gap but a winter weather advisory tomorrow. GFS blows at short range.

I have my own following of friends on MeWe the past few years. I used to be on Facebook and Nextdoor but the ads and controlling my newsfeeds just got too much. I like Mewe as the garbage is filtered out and I control my newsfeed and not ad algorithms. This my forecast below that I posted for them 14 hours ago and I am still sticking to it even after todays 12Z runs Well, it's Wednesday evening and the storm on the short range models is an out to sea storm, just like I called it. Very little impact to our area with the major accumulating snow east of the NJ turnpike. I see us getting between 3-5 inches at the very most for the entire storm event unless a major change comes to the models. in the next 24- hours which is still a possibility that I will not rule out. Most of the snow will fall Sat morning. As the arctic front comes through on Friday, light snow will break out in the morning to lunch time. It will be snowing lightly all afternoon and into Friday night. 1-2 inches is possible by midnight. if the roads are treated -no problem. Winter storm watches will most likely go out for counties to the south and especially east of the LV by tomorrow afternoon. For us- a wait and see situation as we are very borderline right now. I just wish we we could have a plowable snow event of 4-6 inches but even that appears unlikely right now

If this is indeed true, its better than watching any weather model run this past year

I blame one thing and one thing only- the lack of empirical data over the Pacific Ocean in a very progressive west to east weather pattern. Not enough buoys, balloons and flight to gather information to ingest into all of the models to make deterministic and more accurate locations of upper air winds and pressures. Surface precip maps do not control the weather , upper winds do plain and simple. The more equipment we have to get temps, pressure and wind speeds the more accurate the models will be. My solution to this mess: Launch drones in the areas of the pacific ocean (the great void) where we we currently lack the available data and design these drones to exceed 50,000 sq ft. the capability to launch weather balloons and gather air pressure humidity and temps throughout the profile of the atmosphere. If companies can produce a drone to deliver a frickling amazon package, they can make them to fly over the pacific ocean with the appropriate weather data gathering equipment. Something is better than nothing

Too early to say. If the La Nina takes its time breaking down, sometime in May. Still can get late April rains to kill the potential drought though but Feb and March are not looking good right now for any huge precip event. All it takes though is one good snowfall storm event of 12-18 inches in Feb to provide us with a good recharge. Lets hope this happens by Valentines Day.

Wow, it appears I hit this moving target in the bullseye. No biting for me. It appears another use of the leaf blower for this snow event. Gotta charge up the battery. LMAO +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our... Monday at 05:09 PM 1,934 replies 2

cmon hold on to your poker face a little longer. This is an OTS storm. For the LV, 1-3 inches thats it

well posters, please send this potential storm to the graveyard of fails for this winter season. Never even got out of the starting gate. The dry progressive air pattern keeps on beating these storms down as they form off the coast. Whats next? Whats so heartbreaking for snow lovers is that the GFS long range indicates a fantasy storm five days out only to never reappear again. Run after run indicates a 6+ inch storm only to disappear and get pushed back for another week. You cannot even establish any pattern to this progressive split flow. Again, the only concern I have is that the drought potential is not going away in this current weather pattern and if we do not get some significant precip whether rain or snow, into the ground water tables, they will fall pretty quick in early April as temps rise. Our current weather pattern scenario reminds me a lot of the winter of 93 before the March superstorm hit. It will take a major hitter to break this stubborn pattern for sure.

yes that was a nice storm event. I like your summation so far on facebook but I am concerned that the storm bombs out past the BM leaving us with scraps this time. The last storm barreled through in this progressive pattern which hints this storm may only slow down once gets near LI. I think tonight's OZ Nam run will tells us if the storm will have enough energy before it hits the benchmark to throw bands off the ocean and toward eastern PA. Nothing better than having orographic lifting from east to west which is good for us in the LV.