So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though. You know where I am placing my bets.
American Weather Forum: Cold and wet pattern showing up in 10 days on the models.
American Weather Forum 10 Days Later: Cold and wet pattern showing up in 10 days on the models.
We are all guilty of it, I admit as much. :+)
Based on model trends and climatology, I believe we get a good winter storm in VA, NC, and upstate SC in the Jan 7 to Jan 12 range. Just an opinion, but there will be ample cold shots. Just need moisture.
As stated, before I was rudely interrupted, cold rain here in Wilmington. The warm nose is coming everyone. Be ready for crushed dreams. I bear gifts from Wilmington for you all.
NAM does look realistic. That said, I am still taking a big snow for the Triad, west, as my final prediction. Largest accumulation in Asheville and points to the NE. GFS V3 has the right idea.
I grew up in Fayetteville. I have seen my share of good snow. I only point out what the models are doing. You know the truth. Sorry if that crushes your dreams.