So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though. You know where I am placing my bets.
American Weather Forum: Cold and wet pattern showing up in 10 days on the models.
American Weather Forum 10 Days Later: Cold and wet pattern showing up in 10 days on the models.
We are all guilty of it, I admit as much. :+)
Based on model trends and climatology, I believe we get a good winter storm in VA, NC, and upstate SC in the Jan 7 to Jan 12 range. Just an opinion, but there will be ample cold shots. Just need moisture.
As stated, before I was rudely interrupted, cold rain here in Wilmington. The warm nose is coming everyone. Be ready for crushed dreams. I bear gifts from Wilmington for you all.
NAM does look realistic. That said, I am still taking a big snow for the Triad, west, as my final prediction. Largest accumulation in Asheville and points to the NE. GFS V3 has the right idea.
I grew up in Fayetteville. I have seen my share of good snow. I only point out what the models are doing. You know the truth. Sorry if that crushes your dreams.
NAM is much warmer. At the surface and 850 mb. We shall see what other models are saying. However, bad run if you like snow. Great if you like cold cold rain
I only speak the truth though. GFS FV3 is warmer at 850 mb. Overall, low is further south, high is weaker, and temps aloft are warmer. Who is ready for some cold rain? Western NC still has a good chance for snow and I am rooting for them.