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TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

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Everything posted by TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

  1. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Pictures or it never happened
  2. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Anyone have a picture of the GEFS members and EPS members at 18z?
  3. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF.
  4. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    ICON shifted NW a good bit, hmmm.
  5. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Warm nose even more prevalent on this NAM run. It keeps creeping north slowly, each run.
  6. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Yep, maybe a small cave to ECMWF and UKMET. We shall see.
  7. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Was it an issue with qpf, temps, or both? Was the UKMET mirroring the ECMWF during that storm like it is now with this storm?
  8. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    A serious red flag for sure. How did EPS do with the winter storm about a week ago in GA and SC?
  9. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Anyone have the EPS?
  10. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    This looks like a good case study for how important short range models are for events like this.
  11. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    That is one heck of a blizzard on the UKMET. How well does it handle moisture? Is it temps as the issue?
  12. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Similar to ECMWF. Shocker there. Not.
  13. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Video from Brad P https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=492013811740464&id=162655917140206&sfnsn=mo&d=n&vh=e
  14. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    So, you think it is all snow? NAM is usually good with showing warm noses, or so I have been told a few times over the years. NAM was right with the warm nose each time.
  15. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    3k NAM looks like even more sleet and a slower change to snow for many parts of NC. Not as much moisture as well.
  16. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Does that graphic include sleet
  17. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Speaking in terms of warmth aloft.
  18. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Warm nose on the NAM and it is good at sniffing those out. Central NC went from mostly snow to a lot of sleet. Trending the wrong way.
  19. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO As I have mentioned before, temps appear to be an issue. Rates may not overcome it.
  20. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well.
  21. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    UKMET show anything?
  22. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Hour 51 and the NAM looks flatter to me but just an opinion.
  23. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Until the ECMWF gets on board I will be very skeptical. Never bet against it, I have seen so many instances of it being right over all the other models.
  24. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    What does 18z ECMWF look like?
  25. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Much more support. Trends looking better today. Could they get better or worse. We will find out in a few hours.
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