TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
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Everything posted by TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
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This one seems to have bust written all over it for about half of those expecting something. When the NWS is not thrilled about snow chances, it is best to not ignore that.
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Question, is which is more accurate at this range at predicting moisture envelope?
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12km NAM was noticeably drier for many.
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Possibly a dud storm. The GFS has shown a struggle with temps for days now.
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12z ICON is warmer for most outside the mountains.
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Whew that GFS run, ouch.
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I am starting to think the NAM is drastically off. I believe moisture will be there in the Carolinas. Just a temp issue.
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Anyone have GEFS snow totals in NC?
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GFS is slightly colder, interesting. We need it to be a little colder, but the moisture is not likely to be the problem.
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NAM is usually AMPED UP! So, the latest upgrade "fixed" that?
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Clever girl! I am just a logical thinker, and I believe the likely outcome for most storms in much of NC is rain. I love snow as much as anyone else but this storm is not trending in a positive direction for many including my neck of the woods. Now back to your weenie programming :+) Good luck to all.
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Well, this is just terrible trends for everyone outside the mountains. Seems to be a common theme the last few winters. We need an absolute perfect set up to squeeze out an inch in many places now. Could it be global warming? Does anyone know?
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ICON is less enthusiastic about snow chances outside of the mountains. Even the mountains had totals cut by quite a bit.
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Overall theme is less snow for many including many in NW NC. Both on the current GFS and Para. CMC continuing this trend as well. Much warmer and less moisture overall. Mountains is the place to be with this system in my opinion.
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Any snow maps?
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I have seen this many times before, one model mostly sticking to one solution and it ends up being right. Happens a lot with winter in NC and tropical systems in the Atlantic. Curious to see the Para.
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In most of NC you want to see the storm north and trending south as we start closing in, instead of south in the GOM and going north each run. Hope I am wrong.
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Raleigh/Durham. The trends NW and warmer have started in my opinion.
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It is looking less and less likely that central NC gets a good snow from this system. Good luck to those in NW SC, NC, and southern VA.
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GFS says no to snow in most places but who is down for some rain? Haven't seen that in a while in NC /s GFS is either to warm or it is on to something.
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ICON is more juiced up at 12z. Step in the right direction. Heavy snow in NC, compared to less snow last run not showing much.
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Isn't the NAM usually known for overdoing the amount of moisture?
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Hard to ignore the ICON and GFS showing nothing much. I think the potential is there, but I would like to see all models showing the goods.
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GFS may break some hearts. We shall see.
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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 replied to jburns's topic in Southeastern States
Anyone have the GEFS ensemble member snow totals?
