StantonParkHoya
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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya
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Sure looks like it’s still heading due west, not NW like forecasted
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18 years in modeling advancements
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It was in the 30s with frost in Boone, NC. Can’t recall many tropical systems of consequence after that stuff starts.
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This is simply not true as most hurricane models are into the Panama City to Big Bend areas.
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Honestly between 0z run yesterday of the Euro and 0z today, it’s maybe a 40 mile difference in track. Noise. Split the difference with GFS is right where NHC has it. Big bend to central GA.
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0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta. overall pretty similar to 12z
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Ah my bad. Looks about same position.
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Also a narrowing of the envelope from PC to Big Bend.
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GFS going in at Panama City, very slight tick east
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It’s sitting in Daytona and not even raining in charleston
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notable that only one GEFS member goes south of Tampa with a very large contingent into AL or even LA/MS
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You can feel the wishcasting on here based on which side of the coin people chime in with
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12z CMC takes it into Gulf Shores, AL
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Can we please cut the banter?
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Quite weak
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I mean he’s right, these air masses are more akin to mid/late October
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If by just west, you mean 150 miles west. It’s noticeably west of 12z.
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It’s a low likelihood
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Wow. We said there was no way of avoiding a US landfall, but life finds a way.
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One notable for those thinking eastern threat — the runs most east are the quickest (when ridging is to the west), by the time high/heights get overhead and east, storm is out. Thinking most likely is a somewhat weak entry north of Tampa, riding northward along I-95 til an exit near Wilmington, NC.
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I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment.
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Indeed. If it were the 90s, without long range modeling, we wouldn’t even be talking about this.
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We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall
