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StantonParkHoya

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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya

  1. StantonParkHoya
    Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east. edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough.
  2. StantonParkHoya
    Ironically, Levi mentions a stronger solution early is more likely to tug west as it feels impacts of northeasterly sheer.
  3. StantonParkHoya
    CMC has temps in the low 50s in NW South Carolina at landfall. More like a nor’easter.
  4. StantonParkHoya
    GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z
  5. StantonParkHoya
    The mean is Mobile after a landfall in Cancun
  6. StantonParkHoya
    I meant post FL crossing
  7. StantonParkHoya
    Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS.
  8. StantonParkHoya
    GFS ensemble further SW as well. Looks like a cluster into New Orleans.
  9. StantonParkHoya
    Might get a Cancun landfall edit: it does, totally new solution here
  10. StantonParkHoya
    GFS noticeably southwest of 6z
  11. StantonParkHoya
    Bus ticket to Atlanta on 6z
  12. StantonParkHoya
    Most GEFS members that cross over to the Atlantic side look to be heading OTS however
  13. StantonParkHoya
    TS force winds all the way up to Atlanta
  14. StantonParkHoya
    As others have pointed out, Bermuda is not really a “traditional tropical island”… heck, their new airport is nicer than any in the US
  15. StantonParkHoya
    All of the Euro ensemble solutions that threaten US landfall basically dissipate Fiona over Hispaniola which allows it to survive and get caught up in the westerlies flow. It still gets caught by the mega trough later on. Low probability outcome.
  16. StantonParkHoya
    Really concerned for Bermuda as well
  17. StantonParkHoya
    Just watched. Great synopsis. Does mention that even if it does get closer to NA, the mega trough would clean it up.
  18. StantonParkHoya
    We may need to shift our concern/tracking to potential impacts on Bermuda if the GFS is to be believed; potential cat 4/5 bearing down.
  19. StantonParkHoya
    It also may go east of Bermuda. Way OTS.
  20. StantonParkHoya
    Looks like about 90% of GEFS members recurve
  21. StantonParkHoya
    GFS wayyyyyyy OTS. Not even close.
  22. StantonParkHoya
    I think it really is a question of does this survive through the Caribbean. If it flushes Hispaniola, this thread is for nought.
  23. StantonParkHoya
    OBX scraper. I suppose the whole window of options is available.
  24. StantonParkHoya
    Except 80% of the modeling favors the latter fish path right now
  25. StantonParkHoya
    There’s always November. Maybe the weirds will score on a Frankenstein storm.
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