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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    You really want to play that game? Look at the forecast in your own backyard numbskull.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    You should be the one bringing up other people's posts. Pot meet kettle. I could write a novel of your posts that were embarrassingly incorrect. I wrote that because it showed stupid amounts north of 84, like 3 inches for Albany and 1 for Poughkeepsie. It has since corrected to a more reasonable output especially in the Capital District. It is still the warmest of the models and did the storm happen already? We will see what verifies.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    and isn't that exactly what happened at 00z vs 18z therefore it looked a little more like other guidance as far as snow vs sleet. I have seen the nam be too aggressive with the warming many times and it did correct somewhat at 00z.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    UKIE
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    The nam is also known to be too warm at times also. 00z was different, with the primary not being as strong and secondary further south and it was colder. The bottom line is the output was far different from other models, particulary up north, and if Albany gets 3 inches I'll eat my shorts in Macy's window.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    Did you look at the 12z and 18z. It was a joke. 00z was a big correction and is still a warm outlier particularly north of 84. At 18z it gave my area 1.5 inches and Albany 3. Every other piece of guidance gives north of 84 up to I90 anywhere between 8 and 12. Should we ignore all the other guidance?
  9. HeadInTheClouds
  10. HeadInTheClouds
    The stronger precip intensity may delay the changeover also.
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    Not worried. It's still better than 18z.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    It's probably looking for the coordinates to Snowman's house.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    Nam almost made it back to planet earth. It's still hovering though and deciding whether to land or not.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    No it didn't. Don't look at TT maps as they include sleet. Pivotal maps had it only giving me about 2 inches and then lots of sleet. It gave Newburgh practically no snow, lol.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    What model has actually shifted north besides the nam? GFS basically the same, and RGEM and Euro were colder.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    The nam definitely won't verify and I believe we get at least 6 before some sleet.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    So has every model quite frankly. We just don't have a go to model anymore. Precip starts in under 36 hours and still a lot of possible solutions on the table as far as the thermals are concerned.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    So lets see. 18z Euro gives me 12, 18z RGEM 10, 18z GFS 10, plus other mesos who are a bit out of their range give me similar numbers but I'm supposed to believe that Nam actually has a clue with it's 1.5 IMBY and 3 up in Albany and takes the primary well north and develops the secondary over cape cod. Well, I don't.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    It's an absolute warm outlier and not even close to other guidance. It's not just about warm tongues. Nothing is even close.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    Those snow numbers look about the same to me. Maybe a tad less but not by much.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    It’s still ridiculous with the northern extent of the sleet. I have no problem with the 5 boroughs being mostly sleet but it’s out to lunch further north.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    It’s wrong and not even close to any other guidance. Just the nam being the nam.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    It’s a huge warm outlier and anybody with a brain knows this.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes they do. Your snow is going to fall generally between 6z and 12z. I could see the 3-5 there. Isn’t NWS calling for 4-6?
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    It also has decent snows in lower Hudson valley in your backyard before the sleet.
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