WSchew

Pretty classic virga signature from FCX. Notice how there’s nothing really showing up over Surry, Stokes and Rockingham counties but then radar returns magically appear in the counties just south of there?Well the FCX radar dome already sits about 2800’ elevation, so about 2000’ above the Triad. If you incorporate 0.5 deg tilt, the beam height over the Triad is roughly 7000’ above the ground. This reduces to about 6000’ as you move north into those VA border counties. So, this is telling us the flakes are falling, but sublimating in a dry layer between 6k-7k feet. Pretty typical with NW flows.

Where’s the PARA when you need it?! Statement from NWS/NCEI implies they’ve been doing scheduled maintenance, ending around 2pm today. So maybe we’ll have her back online for happy hour.

Light rain mixed with sleet this morning. Just enough to see little collections of white in the corners of my roof. 37.8/28.9

Pretty nice stretch of below freezing temps imby so far this year. Average of these is 29.6, which is roughly the seasonal average thru the period. 1-Jan 36.7 2-Jan 37.0 3-Jan 39.0 4-Jan 31.3 5-Jan 30.7 6-Jan 29.7 7-Jan 25.2 8-Jan 33.3 9-Jan 28.2 10-Jan 24.3 11-Jan 26.6 12-Jan 30.0 13-Jan 23.5 14-Jan 31.6 15-Jan 28.4 16-Jan 28.2 17-Jan 25.2 18-Jan 27.0 19-Jan 25.9

Agreed. Looks like the latest NAM suite is spitting out mostly virga over NC piedmont on Thursday morning. Very dry 925 layer. 2m temps around 40. 2m dew point in the mid 20s. Wet bulb around freezing. A little juice and we could see a sleet pellet or two.

Graupel falling in WS

Nice little map for yesterday’s event from GSP. Congrats guys! Here’s to hoping for a surprise down here in the piedmont.

Meanwhile in Spain.. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/09/madrid-spain-snow-blizzard/

Radar is filling back in over Triad. Mix of very light rn/ip/sn starting to fall. Similar to 9-11am this morning, I expect some decent rates between 3-5pm but would be surprised to see any accumulation. I don’t see why RAH is holding onto WSW here, but here’s to hoping...

WXII had a reporter out there off 421 in N Wilkesboro for the afternoon newscast. Looked like moderate snow, but barely had a dusting in the grass, wet roads. However, radar returns have picked up a bit since then with the ULL moving overhead.

Aunt’s deck north side of Cashiers at 4000’. Looks around 2-3”

Very light precip 4 miles west of Winston, all snow. 37.8/31.5 so it must be getting pretty cold right above surface

^unusual bullseye right over Lake Norman. Typically a relative min around that area due to elevation and water.

TWC veryyy bullish on amounts in NW NC and SW VA... I feel it would be a sin to post the map, but they have a large swath of 3-5” along and north of i40 (including the entire triad) and a band 1-3” roughly between i85 and i40. They sure have a way of over-hyping a storm at this range...

Low of 31.6 here on the west side of Winston. Enough for a glaze on anything elevated, probably 0.05” in the higher tree tops. Drove up 52 to the NW corner of Forsyth for lunch and there was about 0.10”, but with more even distribution. Always interesting to see the variation in ice accrual with just minor elevation changes (50-100ft) in these borderline events.

EPS looks nice

Never thought I’d say it, but I think the three WRF models nailed this one.

Looking at the near term... 3k NAM is hinting at flakes with the disturbance late Thursday morning. Looks to be confined north of i40/421 from Boone spreading down into the Piedmont to about GSO. Surface temps in the mid 30s, so I doubt any accumulation. Continued support from some of the globals and the last frame of the RGEM. CMC has been hell bent on this for a few days now, but it pushed precip further up into VA on the latest run. Something else to track at the very least.

A little, but in the form of high clouds. No precip

HRRR removes heat fast this evening. It takes 2m temp in the triad to 32 around 5pm - down to 24 at 7 pm. It bottoms out in the mid teens in NC Piedmont where there’s a nice snowpack. This seems a bit overdone based on forecasts. Hi res NAM is much warmer and slower to radiate. Doesn’t drop to freezing until midnight, bottoming out in the mid 20s in northern NC, tapering to 32 towards SC line. This seems warm even if the clouds are stubborn. RGEM is somewhere in between the two and seems most reasonable. Drops to 32 between 6-7pm, bottoming out pretty close to everyones official forecast low.