OrdIowPitMsp

At least those totals verified, albeit further south. It annoys me a lot more when the models put out big numbers and then dry up right at showtime. Next snow event less then 48 hours away!

8.8” storm total at MSP. one last burst of moderate snow rotating through now. We’ll see if it adds anything. 12-14” reports 10 miles south.

It has snowed all afternoon as modeled with visibility between 1-2mi. I have noticed shoveled/plows surfaces have stayed wet instead of accumulating new snow and there has been compaction elsewhere. Spring.

I’m definitely disappointed we missed out on big dog numbers. It looks like 10-14” totals in the southern burbs a few miles south of the airport, but this has still been a quality storm. Snowing all day and top tier time outside with the kids.

MSP was at 8.5” as of 1pm.

Yeah bit of a bust in the metro as the most intense banding ended up ~75 miles south where 20”+ totals are verifying. Still a really high quality storm here at least, we’ll see what the afternoon brings.

Got to hand it to the GFS. Nailed the placement of the jackpot zone many days ago. Today is going to be a lot of fun.

Sister-in-law who lives in San Fransisco had her first kid a month ago and we are visiting them in early April. For their sake I’m hoping it’s 50s and rainy, but it’s the very end of the rainy season so a heat dome looks more likely. We have a place rented on the beach in Half Moon Bay, kids are gonna love the tide pools.

That jives with what I’m measuring 1-2mi north of the airport.

Round 1 of shoveling I measured 7-8” depending on the spot. 12” storm total definitely still in play.

Yeah it’s ripping right now. We still have 10+ hours to go according to the HRRR

Pity that MSP isn’t the bullseye but this should still end up with substantial totals at the airport. Going to go out and do round 1 of shoveling and measure soon.

Hi-res models have swung the heavy death band south of the metro now. 50 miles will make the difference between 12-15” and 18-24”

Vis under a mile now. Wind is shredding the dendrites and already causing minor drifting

Ground is dusted, snow getting steadier. Here we go!

Nice explanation by MPX on pulling the trigger for a blizzard warning. So the Blizzard Warning... There is high confidence given the snow totals and strength of winds that blizzard conditions will be observed in our traditional "blizzard alley" from west central to south central MN, especially late Sunday morning into Sunday night. For eastern Minnesota into western WI, blizzard purists may argue that we don`t hit blizzard conditions of a 1/2 mile or less visibility with wind gusts of 35 mph or more for 3 or more consecutive hours. This is because the strongest winds will be lagging the heaviest snow and eastern MN and western WI really need the heavy falling snow to achieve the visibility requirements of a Blizzard Warning. However, we are looking at historic snowfall amounts for a March storm (see climate section), with travel expected to be crippled across our entire area tonight into Sunday night. In addition, when the common citizen looks out the window Sunday morning (ie. not the blizzard purist!), they`ll likely say, yup, this is one heck of a blizzard. Given the expected high to extreme impacts, we felt comfortable in pulling the biggest winter messaging lever we have, the Blizzard Warning. Simply put, travel is expected to be very dangerous on Sunday and the best way to get the message across on just how severe this winter storm will be is to go with Blizzard Warning.

Interesting I didn’t dive into that. I usually just look at the 10:1 maps. If we can get extended time in the deformation band, ratios should improve.

MPX mentioned low ratios, in setups like these it’s what typically happens. Also it’s mid March not January.

Just saw it. Wow, going to be hard to sleep tonight if that’s what’s in store. Optimism growing. Top 10 or bust!

I’d definitely feel better in your location versus mine. (Lake Nokomis - S. MPLS) Either way I’ve got cautious optimism in a metro wide 12-18” Starting to spit flakes here.

Nice! Welcome! I’m a little nervous about the dry slot or mixing making its way into the southern half of the metro, but you’ve gotta be close to maximize the pivot. I think Anoka or Forest Lake is the place to be, but this should be fun regardless.

Current thinking from MPX